Buyer Beware: Which UFAs might get too much money and term this summer?
While championship-contending teams are usually built through drafting well and trading wisely, they’re sometimes destroyed in free agency. After they spend the entire season nickel-and-diming every move to stay under the salary cap, free agency gives teams financial breathing room for the first time in a year – and without fail, they usually get trigger happy and spend it all in one go. Teams get into bidding wars over specific players and drive up their prices to the point that any value gained from the player itself is lost in how much he cost.
The salary cap has risen rapidly over the last two seasons and will continue to do so, creating a double-edged sword for the free-agent market. On one hand, it’s provided teams with more cap space to retain talented players and add to their rosters on top of that. But on the other hand, it has also driven up the prices for players, meaning they are still getting overpaid, just with even higher cap hits (although relative to the inflated salary cap, they take up the same amount of space).
As we prepare for July, let’s look at the upcoming unrestricted free agent market and identify which players teams should probably avoid giving too much money and term on their next deals. It won’t be universal (sometimes players take discounts re-signing with their current teams or their boyhood teams), but if a player is looking for the highest bidder, that team will likely regret it.
Rasmus Andersson
Beware: Getting fooled by the minutes, top option in a depleted defense market
Anyone who watched the Vegas Golden Knights’ playoff run (particularly the Stanley Cup Final) saw this coming. Andersson has developed a reputation over the years as being a strong two-way defenseman, but in reality, he has rarely been that defenseman. Only in his rookie season did he have both and offensive and defensive goals above replacement above two, and only thrice has he had a positive defensive impact (and not since 2021-22). In the playoffs, his play in his own end got even worse with a 46.88% 5v5 goals share and 44.53% 5v5 expected goals share, and his pairing with Noah Hanifin was victimized by the Carolina Hurricanes. Teams should be staying away from Andersson on July 1 and really only circle back on him when the market goes down, and even then, that’s if they think they have the personnel or structure to insulate him.
But a quick look at the free agent market, and you know that won’t happen. Andersson is one of three defensemen on the market to average at least 17 minutes of 5v5 ice time, and we’ve seen time and time again how often teams are fooled by a defenseman’s ice time meaning they can play those minutes. Even if they don’t play those minutes well, some teams will convince themselves that these players can “eat those minutes” and you’ll come out ahead elsewhere in the lineup, but that clearly wasn’t the case for the Calgary Flames for the past four seasons, or for Vegas in the Cup Final. But with so few options on the market and the trade value for defensemen being criminally high, teams are going to look at Andersson as an option for their top four that they don’t need to spend assets on, and they’ll pay him what they need to in order to acquire him. And they’re probably going to regret it.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Beware: Potential for too much term
Don’t get me wrong: for some teams, Bobrovsky would be a great add. He’s got plenty of experience, and for teams looking for a stopgap in net while they figure out their plans for the long term, he would be a nice fit. He shouldn’t be relied upon as a full-time starter at this point in his career, as he’s coming off his worst season, with an .877 save percentage and -5.19 5v5 goals saved above expected. But in a tandem role, especially with a less-experienced goalie to support (ie. Pyotr Kochetkov/Brandon Bussi with Carolina, Arturs Silovs/Sergei Murashov with Pittsburgh), Bobrovsky may still be a viable option.
But Bobrovsky makes the most sense on a short-term deal. He’ll be 38 at the start of the 2026-27, so signing him to anything beyond two or three years is pushing his effectiveness. However, he may not want that. There’s some reports that he may be seeking close to the max-term on his next contract, which would be insane for any team to agree to. Yes, there’s a good chance that this deal ends up being LTIRed for the final few seasons, but unless lengthening the term brings down the cap hit significantly, it’d be best to look elsewhere.
Mario Ferraro
Beware: Getting fooled by the minutes
Much like Andersson, the reputation of Ferraro is significantly different than who he is. While he has had some solid seasons, his career has been inconsistent, as only once has he had consecutive positive GAR seasons (both seasons coming earlier in his career alongside Brent Burns as well). Once the San Jose Sharks moved on from Burns and Erik Karlsson, they needed players to fill those minutes on the back end, and Ferraro became that for the Sharks. There really isn’t a better way to describe Ferraro’s time in San Jose: he ate minutes.
Now, it isn’t all bad with Ferraro. He’s actually coming off one of his better seasons with a 6.8 GAR and -0.049 5v5 regularized adjusted plus minus xG/60. Now, he also ranked sixth among the Sharks’ nine most-used defensemen in terms of quality of competition (based on RAPM xG/60), so he finally got to play in a role where he would excel in. But this is the NHL we’re talking about. Teams have seen Ferraro play in a shutdown role, so someone is definitely going to pay him for that, and then overuse him again. Considering the scarcity of the defensemen market as well, that may drive up his price even more.
Erik Haula
Beware: Top option in a depleted center market
Every time I see a transaction involving Haula, I can’t help but ask why the team acquiring him/paying him did what they did. He has an interesting resume in terms of “players he’s been dealt for,” including Nicolas Roy, Pavel Zacha and Vincent Trocheck (as part of a package). A couple of Haula’s contracts have had more term than they probably should have (and occasionally more money too). I have nothing against the guy. He’s a fine player, he’s had his moments (remember when he had 29 goals and 55 points in Vegas’ first season?), but teams seem to value him just a bit more than they should. He’s also coming off of his worst season (-6.3 GAR) and at 35, he probably isn’t improving too much.
But who’s to say he can’t have me questioning the team acquiring him one more time? A quick look at the center market, and it is very bleak. As far as options who look to be popular among teams go, it’s Boone Jenner (more on him in a second), Scott Laughton, Jack Roslovic and Haula. If any team wants help down the middle on the market, there are very few middle-six pivots left, and you can bet there will be a bidding war for these few players when they don’t deserve it. The most total money Haula has made on a contract was the $9.45 million he made on his most recent deal. My gut tells me he beats that with his new one.
Boone Jenner
Beware: Top option in a depleted center market
If you thought Haula was going to benefit from limited options on the center market, Jenner might be a completely different ballpark. In the eyes of many people, Jenner is the kind of center you “win with.” He’s hard-working, gets into the dirty areas, plays well defensively, and he’s a leader. He’ll benefit not just from being the only “reliable” top-six center on the market but as one of those guys you “win with,” and teams will try to pay a premium to acquire his services. I was a bit surprised to see Jenner hit the market when he’s played for the Columbus Blue Jackets for his entire career, but when the market has set up so well for him, it makes perfect sense.
However, the red flags surrounding Jenner may not just be because of the depleted market, but also because he is the prototypical player to sign a bad contract in free agency. Think back to Ryan Clowe, Troy Brouwer, Milan Lucic, David Backes, James Neal, etc. All great players, but known for having physical elements to their game, and signed right at the point where their body started to pay the price for their play. Jenner is 33, so if it hasn’t happened yet, it will very shortly. Add in the fact that he hasn’t had a positive defensive impact season since 2021 (and has only actually done so three times in his career), and it’s clear that teams trying to sign him will be doing so for the wrong reasons.
Logan Stanley
Beware: Buying at his absolute highest
For those who have followed my work all season, you’ll know I’ve been on Stanley all season for how unsustainable his play was. I brought it up on several occasions in our power rankings, and then highlighted it yet again after the Buffalo Sabres acquired him at the Trade Deadline. He struggled defensively throughout the season with a 0.106 5v5 RAPM xGA/60, and to be honest, his career hasn’t been much better at 0.073. The Winnipeg Jets always liked to play him more than they needed to because of his six-foot-seven frame, but for the most part, he just hasn’t been an effective defenseman when he’s in the lineup.
And yet, he’ll probably get his big payday on July 1. Again, being 6-foot-7 alone is going to attract some old school general manager who thinks that will give them a tough defender who can clear the crease and play the body. But Stanley is also coming off a career year where he had nine goals and 26 points. Prior to last season, his most productive season was 14 points, and he had five TOTAL goals across the first five seasons of his career. He also almost doubled his career shooting percentage to get those nine goals. He’s not repeating that, but some team definitely thinks he will and will probably regret paying for it in a year or two.
Jacob Trouba
Beware: Getting fooled by the minutes
I miss the Trouba we saw on the Jets. That guy was a play-driving demon, smart at both ends of the ice and spiced things up every now and again with a little bit of physicality. He never got properly used with Winnipeg, with them opting to play Dustin Byfuglien (rightfully) and Tyler Myers (not as rightfully) ahead of Trouba, so I don’t blame him for wanting out of there. But ever since he left, he hasn’t been the same. Case in point, his total GAR with the Jets across six seasons: 46.7. His GAR since then with the New York Rangers and Anaheim Ducks: -15.8.
Trouba’s game became focused more on dishing out big hits and less about being smart, and as a result, he often lost his minutes. Perhaps it’s disproved the theory that he needed more ice time when with the Jets, and he’s just never been fully equipped to deal with tougher competition. Regardless, the Rangers and Ducks have played him in this role, and that’s going to be enough for another team to pursue him in hopes of him playing those minutes for their team. Heck, the Ducks may retain Trouba out of fear of having to replace his minutes. But he already struggled in that deployment, and at 32, he’s not going to be much better on his next contract. Even with his last contract already being a problem with an $8-million cap hit, some team will likely make the same mistake.
_____
SPONSORED BY bet365