The biggest bust selected at each top 20 NHL Draft spot
The NHL Draft is just a couple days away, and it’s simultaneously the most exciting and nerve-wracking time of the year for amateur scouting departments. On one hand, all their hard work from the past year (if not longer) will finally pay off, and they’ll see it come to fruition in the players their teams select. But on the other hand, it’s the one time they’ll face plenty of scrutiny – if a player they take high in the draft doesn’t pan out, it’s a bad look on them.
The NHL Draft is littered with busts at every draft selection, and the higher the pick, the higher the bar for the drafting team. No team is flawless at the draft table, but in the early rounds of the process, the pressure to nail the pick is elevated. It’s the part of the draft where teams should be guaranteed a quality player, so if you fail to even land a consistent NHLer at this position, it could set back the franchise.
With that in mind, let’s look back at the history of the NHL Draft and explore the worst players selected at the top positions. We’ll only dive into the top 20 picks, as after that point, it becomes more common for players to not pan out. There are three additional rules with this process:
- We won’t look at any draft before 1970. With the NHL changing the minimum age for draft-eligible players a couple times in the 1960s, it led to some weak pools which wouldn’t have been the case if it stayed the same. Since the minimum age stabilized at 18 in 1970, we’ll start there.
- We also won’t look at any draft in the 2020s too often. While some players are creeping toward bust territory, most are 24 or younger, and we still can’t 100 percent evaluate their NHL potential. They won’t be completely ignored, but it’s safer to go with the sure things who are in their 30s or well-retired.
- We also will ignore players whose careers were altered by extenuating circumstances unrelated to their performance or the drafting team’s mismanagement. Whether it’s consistent injury problems, off-ice situations, or premature deaths, it’s not something we can blame the player or team for.
No. 1: Greg Joly
Also Considered: Gord Kluzak, Rick DiPietro
It’s hard to not at least develop a consistent NHLer with a first-overall pick. When a team drafts first, they’re hoping for a franchise-altering superstar, but even if they fail at that, they can usually get an everyday NHLer off from forced development due to their pedigree. So it’s particularly impressive when a team can’t even get a notable career out of a first-overall pick, and that’s what the Washington Capitals got with Joly. Taken in 1974, Joly managed just 97 points in 365 games, despite the fact that then-Caps GM Milt Schmidt stated the defenseman could “do a lot of the same incredible things Bobby Orr does“. While Kluzak nearly got the nod as the only post-60s first-overall pick to not even hit 300 games, his struggles were injury-related. Joly just couldn’t get into the lineup, only playing one full season in the NHL. Add in Wilf Paiement and Clark Gillies going second and fourth in the same draft, and it was a stinger for Washington.
No. 2: Dave Chyzowski
Also Considered: Barry Dean, Nolan Patrick
If I were going solely off draft quality, Patrick may have taken this spot, with Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar and Elias Pettersson selected in the next three picks after him. But while he was inconsistent at the NHL level, the larger issue with him was the migraines which cut his career short. In the case of Chyzowski, he just couldn’t hack it at the NHL level. He never established himself as a consistent NHLer after he was selected by the New York Islanders in 1989, only played more than 15 games in a season twice, and only got 31 points in his career. And health wasn’t a large issue in his career either. At least when Dean only played three seasons, he was a consistent NHLer and put together a 0.49 point-per-game pace.
No. 3: Neil Brady
Also Considered: Alexandr Svitov, Cam Barker
The third overall slot has a surprisingly bad success rate. For every Leon Draisaitl, Scott Niedermayer, Denis Savard or Henrik Sedin, there are dozens of underwhelming selections, even in recent history with the likes of Zach Bogosian, Kirby Dach, Alex Galchenyuk, Erik Gudbranson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. But most of those players have at least carved out solid NHL careers, even if they aren’t worth the third-overall pedigree. None has fallen as low as Neil Brady. Selected in 1986 by the New Jersey Devils, Brady struggled to find a place in the NHL, only playing 89 NHL games with just 31 points. He does have some historical relevance for scoring the Ottawa Senators’ first goal in franchise history, but otherwise, his career was not worthy of the third-overall pick.
No. 4: Alexander Volchkov
Also Considered: Griffin Reinhart, Fred Williams
Most times when teams pick in the top five, even if the player is a bust, they can at least get a season or two out of them, purely off of forced development by way of a sunken cost fallacy. So it’s impressive they can take a player fourth overall and only get three games out of them. That was the case when the Capitals selected Volchkov, although it was a slightly self-inflicted wound by the Capitals. Volchkov had well-reported attitude issues at the time of his selection, but Washington opted to take the risk and take the winger for his offensive upside. It didn’t pan out at all, as Volchkov played only three games, failing to register a point, and only spent four seasons in the AHL before finishing out his career in Russia.
No. 5: Daniel Dore
Also Considered: Bjorn Johansson, Olli Juolevi
The fifth-overall bust came down to the wire, with both Dore and Johansson bringing interesting cases to the table. Both played fewer than 20 NHL games, the only ones within our eligible options to fail to hit the mark. Both are two of three to get only five points or fewer in their careers (Juolevi being the other). Both also had limited AHL careers, with Dore finishing up five years after he was drafted, while Johansson did so in only two. But the ultimate decider was who came immediately after Dore in the 1988 draft. Scott Pearson didn’t pan out too well either at sixth overall, but the following four picks were Martin Gelinas, Jeremy Roenick, Rod Brind’Amour and Teemu Selanne, who all played at least 1,200 games, with the latter three getting at least 400 goals and 1,100 points. The Quebec Nordiques are probably regretting this one.
No. 6: Scott Scissons
Also Considered: Brian Finley, Nikita Filatov
This pick came down to Scissons and Finley, with two tiebreakers coming into play here. First, Scissons came from a deeper draft, one which saw players like Martin Brodeur, Keith Tkachuk and Doug Weight taken after him and have longer careers. Secondly, Finley is a goaltender, a position which is a bit more volatile at the draft. Sure, the Nashville Predators could have not wasted a sixth-overall pick on a goaltender, but that thinking wasn’t as common in the late 1990s. The Islanders should have had a better idea who they were getting when they drafted a skater in Scissons, and in the end, all they got were two regular season games and a playoff game in three separate seasons with no points out of the pick.
No. 7: Lars Jonsson
Also Considered: Ryan Sittler, Dan Woodley
The seventh-overall pick has quite a few strong contenders. I almost went with Sittler, who never played a single game, but injuries played a factor in the failure to launch his career. Woodley was also a consideration due to some talented players like Brian Leetch going right after him. But Jonsson comes with an interesting history, as the Boston Bruins were just as much to blame for him not panning out with the team. The Bruins never signed Jonsson to play for them due to changes to the collective bargaining agreement not allowing European prospects’ rights to indefinitely remain with one team. As a result, Boston let Jonsson go to get a second-round pick (which didn’t fair much better in Yuri Alexandrov), while Jonsson signed with the Philadelphia Flyers but never amounted to much in North America before returning to Sweden. When management impacts a player becoming a bust, you have to go with that pick.
No. 8: Scott Glennie
Also Considered: Jason Herter, Terry Ryan
The eighth-overall selection had two players selected to only play one NHL game: Glennie and Herter. Both players had similarly talented draft pools beyond their selection, but while Herter had more injury issues throughout his career, Glennie had a largely healthy career and just struggled to make the NHL. Drafted in 2009 by the Dallas Stars, Glennie did get his one NHL game in during the 2011-12 season. But that was all he got out of his NHL career, spending the rest of it in the AHL before retiring in 2017. However, his career wasn’t without any success: he won a Calder Cup with Texas in 2014. Still, not the career high you hope for at eighth overall.
No. 9: Robin Sadler
Also Considered: Petr Taticek, Brent Krahn
While busts are more frequent as we reach the later stages of the top 10, most teams are still able to get something out of their picks. Even if it’s just a single game, like Krahn, just getting them to the NHL is still an achievement, even if the expectations are much higher at this stage of the draft. But that wasn’t the case with Sadler. Selected in 1975 by the Montreal Canadiens, he never established himself in North America to begin with, never mind at the NHL level. He was unhappy with the demands of the pro game in North America, and instead of working towards an NHL (or WHA) career, he decided to settle down in Austria. He played well there, with 191 points in 153 games and even got some Olympic action in with Austria. But the Canadiens got nothing out of the pick outside of nine games with their AHL team.
No. 10: Al Blanchard
Also Considered: Tyler Boucher, Dan Gratton
There are only two players drafted 10th overall who have yet to play an NHL game: Blanchard and Boucher. I say “yet” because Boucher is only 23 years old, and despite not living up to his 10th-overall pedigree for the Senators, there’s still a possibility he can make the NHL. Blanchard, however, was drafted in 1972 by the New York Rangers and is now 74 years old. I wouldn’t hold my breath on him getting his first NHL game in at this point. So when it came down to choosing between the two, that was an easy tiebreaker.
No. 11: Lauri Tukonen
Also Considered: Terry Richardson, Duncan Siemens
There is one player drafted 11th overall who never played a game in the NHL. However, that player was Kyle Beach, who very much falls into the “extenuating circumstances disrupted their career” category and will not be considered for this spot. Instead, we look at Lauri Tukonen, the only other player to not get more than five NHL games under their belt. Selected by the Los Angeles Kings in 2004, Tukonen played five games in the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons before eventually migrating back to Finland for the remainder of his pro career. It wasn’t a loaded draft class taken after him, but it also wasn’t for either consideration.
No. 12: Teemu Riihijarvi
Also Considered: A.J. Thelen, Dan Spring
When I first looked at the list of 12th-overall picks, Hugh Jessiman felt like an easy pick. He only played two NHL games, and he was drafted in the deep 2003 draft. But then I found out there were three other players who hadn’t even played one game, and suddenly Jessiman wasn’t even in the conversation. Spring at least had a solid three-season stint in the World Hockey Association, and Thelen can get some slack for his injuries, but Riihijarvi just never made his way to North America. He had a solid 14-year career in Finland and Sweden, but it wasn’t what the San Jose Sharks were hoping for when they selected him 12th overall in 1995.
No. 13: Michael Stewart
Also Considered: Michael Henrich, Marek Zagrapan
The 13th-overall pick had many strong contenders, as Stewart, Henrich and Zagrapan all failed to crack the NHL, had underwhelming AHL careers and eventually moved on to Europe. All three of them saw some excellent NHL players selected after them as well, including Pavel Datsyuk, Brad Richards and Andrei Markov in Henrich’s 1998 draft, and Kris Letang, Paul Stastny and Keith Yandle in Zagrapan’s 2005 draft. But nothing beats the talent taken in Stewart’s 1990 draft, especially right after him. The Rangers probably regret taking him at 13th when some excellent talent went not too long after him, like Keith Tkachuk at 19th, Vyacheslav Kozlov at 45th, and most notably Martin Brodeur at 20th to their Hudson River rivals, the Devils. Funny enough, the Rangers still had one of the better drafts in 1990, as they selected Doug Weight in the second round and Sergei Zubov in the fifth.
No. 14: Sasha Pokulok
Also Considered: Jim Malone, Dan Lucas
Once again, the biggest bust comes down to health. Both Pokulok and Malone never played a game in the NHL, and while Malone’s professional career never amounted to much regardless, injuries were what cut it short, as he retired just five years after he was selected by the Rangers in 1980. Pokulok did manage to find teams to play on for 17 years, but he never came close to the NHL level, meaning the Capitals got nothing out of picking him in 2005 (outside of an ECHL championship in 2009).
No. 15: Matt Zultek
Also Considered: Artem Kryukov, Jesse Niinimaki
The 15th-overall selection has an inconsistent track record. While some NHL greats were taken at this spot, including Al MacInnis, Joe Sakic and Erik Karlsson, No. 15 has had the most misses I’ve seen to this point. So far, most picks have had three or four players fail to make the NHL. 15th has had seven, with six of them coming in a span from 1994 to 2002. A couple barely even played for their respective AHL teams. But Zultek takes the cake, as he didn’t even get signed by the Kings after they selected him in 1997, and he was redrafted in 1999 to the Bruins, going 56th overall that time around.
No. 16: Alex Bourret
Also Considered: Kevin Cheveldayoff, Vic Mercredi
Three players selected 16th overall did not play a game at the NHL level. One, George Pelawa, died two months after he was drafted by the Calgary Flames in 1986, so he was not considered. Another, Kevin Cheveldayoff, never showed signs of an NHL career when he did play, but he sustained a career-ending knee injury only six years after he was drafted. And the third, Bourret, just struggled to make the NHL. While he still built a solid pro career for himself, spending 13 seasons in the AHL, ECHL and LNAH, the Atlanta Thrashers did not get their money’s worth at 16th overall in 2005.
No. 17: Kory Kocur
Also Considered: Scott Allison, Brent Bilodeau
The 17th-overall pick had a few options for players with no games played, although some were due to extenuating circumstances, like Alexei Cherepanov passing one year after he was drafted, or the Buffalo Sabres being unable to pull Jiri Dudacek from a Communist-led Czechoslovakia (although the Sabres could have also just not drafted him with those looming concerns). But there are still several options who had normal careers which never panned out, with Kocur’s being the least beneficial to the team who drafted. The Detroit Red Wings drafted him in 1988 in hopes he would perform like his cousin Joe Kocur, but they didn’t get that result. Instead, Kory bounced between the AHL and IHL for four seasons before retiring.
No. 18: Jens Karlsson
Also Considered: Jesper Mattsson, Bruce Baker
Some players crack this list because of their failure to make it to the pros. Some make it because they came before impactful players in the draft. Some make it because of their team’s ineptitude with the decision, with there being a clear reason to avoid them that the scouting and management team should have seen coming. But when you can’t even come to a contract agreement with the player, it’s on a different level. That was the case when the Kings took Karlsson 18th overall, as he just never signed with the Kings and played in Sweden for the entirety of his career. Oof.
No. 19: Jan Ingman
Also Considered: Jakub Koreis, Alain Heroux
While Ingman had a solid career in the Swedish Elite League, highlighted by two point-per-game seasons and three championships, we’re not looking at what Farjestads BK Karlstad got out of him. The Canadiens were hoping for a lot more from Ingman when they drafted him in 1981, but instead, he never even touched their farm system, never mind the NHL. The Habs actually had an underwhelming first round in general, as Mark Hunter and Gilbert Delorme were good but not great first-round picks, but they made up for it selecting Chris Chelios late in the second round.
No. 20: David Fischer
Also Considered: Angelo Esposito, Marty Ruff
I almost went with Esposito for this pick, as the Pittsburgh Penguins drafted him despite his already-declining offense in the CHL. However, they still got good value out of him, as he was part of the return for Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis just eight months later. Instead, I’ll give this to Fischer, because by selecting him, the Canadiens missed out on not just an excellent NHL center who produced a ton in his career, but also on a Francophone in Claude Giroux who went just two picks later.
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