Five crucial stats to define the 2026 Stanley Cup Final
And then there were two.
Nearly six months of regular season hockey, and another two of playoff hockey, have all come down to this moment: a showdown between two top teams for the Stanley Cup Final. Neither team was entirely expected here (each team was selected as a Cup finalist once in our staff brackets), what with the Carolina Hurricanes‘ tendency to fall off in the third round, or the Vegas Golden Knights‘ struggles all season. But both teams are playing in top form right now, and are worthy of playing in this Cup Final.
At a quick glance, both teams are quite similar. Both are better known for their aggressive forechecking and elite defense. Both have seen their offense struggle at various points of the season. And both have goaltenders who struggled in the regular season, but are in top form right now. So when the matchups are so similar, the differences are marginal, but oh so important.
With that in mind, I’m going to look at five stats about these two teams, ones that could identify the factors that pull one team ahead of the other. Some involve both teams and some involve one, but they all could be difference makers in the outcome of this Stanley Cup Final.
The expected goal trend strikes again
Anyone who’s followed my work long enough knows how I’ve kept tabs on this trend. But for those who don’t, a couple years ago, I identified a trend in Stanley Cup-winning teams while writing an unrelated article. What I noticed was all but one Stanley Cup winner since 2019 finished in the top 10 in both 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes and 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes in the regular season.
The one team that didn’t, the 2022 Colorado Avalanche, were top 15 in 5v5 xGF/60, with the shooting talent to make up for it. It feels like it shouldn’t be that easy to identify the top Cup contenders, and yet the trend has continued since this discovery. In 2024, both the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers fell into this trend, while last year the Panthers stayed there, with the Oilers a “secondary contender,” like the 2022 Avalanche.
This season, the Cup Final is much like last year. A couple of months ago, I identified five teams that followed this trend. Only one remains: the Hurricanes, who were tied for first in xGF/60 with 3.33 and were eighth in xGA/60 with 2.58. The Golden Knights, meanwhile, are a “secondary contender” ranking second in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.41) but only 14th in 5v5 xGF/60 (2.8).
The numbers don’t lie, folks. Even if you think analytics are hogwash, good teams control play, generate chances, and prevent chances in their own end. It’s common sense. So it’s no surprise the best teams doing this are the ones winning it all. Sure, you have your outliers who go on deep runs, like this year’s Montreal Canadiens (tied for 16th in xGF/60, 23rd in xGA/60), but those teams are always stopped at some point. Regardless of the result of the Final, a team that controls play and chances well will hoist the Cup.
8 Golden Knights with Selke votes
All the talk about both teams’ defensive play holds true, but one thing that makes the Golden Knights so unique is how well their forward group plays defense. How good are they? Well, eight forwards currently on their roster have received votes for Selke Trophies at some point in their careers. None of them has won the award, but all eight have received consideration for it, some on multiple occasions.
A good chunk of Vegas’ Selke-caliber forwards comes from their main core. Mark Stone, Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner are their three best forwards, and all three not only bring a strong offensive game, but are elite in their own end. This isn’t just based on their reputation; the numbers back it up as well. Their 5v5 regularized adjusted plus-minus expected goals against per 60 rates are a respective -0.166, -0.048 and -0.031. Add in William Karlsson (-0.062) to this group, and you have four key players who can punish other teams at both ends of the ice. All four have also received votes in the previous two seasons, and all have finished sixth or higher in voting in at least one season.
But what makes the Golden Knights even more frustrating for opponents is the depth pieces who also have some Selke votes in their careers. More essential to the lineup are Colton Sissons (-0.1 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) and Nic Dowd (-0.51), who make up the pivots in their bottom six. That’s right, all four of Vegas’ centers have Selke votes. That sounds like a tough group to score on. Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith aren’t mainstays in the lineup, nor are they as strong defensively as they once were, but they had votes about 10 years ago. The experience matters, especially if other players are soaking up their information.
And if you’re curious about the Hurricanes, they have four: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Jordan Martinook and Jordan Staal. A solid amount as well, but not nearly as deep as Vegas.
24 combined man games missed – and one active injury
One of the biggest complaints with the Stanley Cup Final is how it doesn’t feel like the peak of both teams, as they’re often worn down and battered by the physicality of the playoffs. Just look at the last time the Golden Knights were here. The Panthers were so broken, the Golden Knights ran through them and dispatched them in five games for a forgettable 2023 Final.
But this year, that won’t be the case, as both teams have been remarkably healthy (by playoff standards, at least). Vegas was without Karlsson for the first round against the Utah Mammoth (as well as the 68 regular season games before it) and Stone missed five playoff games through the second and third, both with a lower-body injury. We don’t know if they’re at full health, but it hasn’t slowed them down.
Meanwhile, Carolina has played in almost perfect health. Nikolaj Ehlers only missed Game 4 against the Ottawa Senators due to a lower-body injury, while Alexander Nikishin missed the first two games against the Philadelphia Flyers with a concussion. Playing only 13 games and having the longest break between playoff series in the modern era also means they’ve had plenty of time to recover and return to full health for the next series.
And then, there’s the only current injury on either team: Jeremy Lauzon on the Golden Knights. He’s missed the last 10 games with an undisclosed injury, although he has returned to practice during the break before the Cup Final. Even if he’s not back, Dylan Coghlan has played well, if not better on the bottom pair in Lauzon’s place. If your only injury is a bottom-pair defenseman, you’re in a good spot. Both teams are still in top form in this Final.
23.8% of Canes goals scored by top line
A lot needs to go right for a team to complete a sweep in the playoffs. A lot more needs to go right for a team to complete back-to-back sweeps in the playoffs. And pretty much everything needs to go right for a team to win 12 of 13 games in the playoffs. The Hurricanes have played like a well-oiled machine. Outside of a rusty performance in Game 1 against the Canadiens, they’ve overwhelmed and shut down their opponents.
Which makes it all the more surprising that not everything has gone right for the Hurricanes in this playoff run. Their defense has played flawlessly, Andersen has been excellent, and the Jackson Blake-Taylor Hall-Logan Stankoven line has thrived, but the Canes’ top line has yet to show up. Many would have thought Carolina needed the best from Aho, Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov to make the Stanley Cup Final, and yet the trio has contributed just 10 goals combined of the 42 goals the team has scored in the playoffs, and they have no more than eight points on their own.
Aho had a strong start to the playoffs with three goals in four games against the Senators, and Jarvis and Svechnikov chipped in a couple of goals against Montreal, but it feels like there’s another level to all three players. All three were close to a point-per-game in their previous two playoff runs, so it’s not like they’re notorious playoff chokers. But with the stakes now at their highest, the Canes need their first line to return to form.
To win the Stanley Cup, you need your best players’ A-games at some point in your run, and the Canes haven’t gotten it from theirs yet. In a matchup between two equally strong defensive teams, which team’s offense can overwhelm the other may decide the series. When the Golden Knights have seen strong play from their top players so far, Aho, Jarvis and Svechnikov need to match their play if the Canes want to help their chances of a Cup win.
10 players from 2023 Cup-winning Golden Knights
Experience is always a handy tool to have in the playoffs. There are elements of the playoffs that the regular season can’t replicate, and it’s especially the case when a player goes all the way and wins the Stanley Cup. While having players who’ve been there before isn’t the most important factor to winning the Cup, it certainly helps.
It helps even more so when you play for a team coming off a recent championship, and the Golden Knights are as recent as it gets among teams not named the Panthers. With a Stanley Cup win in 2023, Vegas has that experience baked into its core, with 10 players from that team remaining on the roster, including key players like Eichel, Stone, and Theodore. Having a player with Cup-winning experience helps, but having a collection of players who have already won together provides even more synergy. Saad is the only additional player with a Stanley Cup on his resume, while John Tortorella also has experience winning it all as a coach.
On the Hurricanes’ side of the coin, they do not have the same level of experience by way of synergy. With just one Cup win in 2006, all that remains on this current roster is one last name (except it’s Jordan Staal instead of Eric) and Rod Brind’Amour (who is now behind the bench instead of on the ice). Otherwise, they have only two players who’ve won the Cup at any point in their careers: the aforementioned Jordan Staal with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2009, and, fittingly enough, another member of the 2023 Golden Knights in William Carrier.
But the nice thing about playoff hockey is you don’t know how to win until you just do it, and you can’t win with only experience. So, just because the Golden Knights won last time doesn’t mean they will this time.
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