Which NHL teams look like 2026 Stanley Cup contenders right now?
A couple years ago, I discovered a trend regarding Stanley Cup-winning teams. Since 2019, the winner always finished the regular season in the top 10 in 5v5 expected goals for and against per 60 minutes. Not in the top 10 in 5v5 expected goal share, expected goals for and against per 60. Teams that created and prevented chances were the ones winning the Stanley Cup. The only exception was the 2022 Colorado Avalanche, who were top 10 in 5v5 xGA/60 and top 15 in 5v5xGA/60. However, the skill on that roster allowed them to have the finishing talent to overcome that.
Now, this isn’t shocking news to anyone. Of course teams who are good offensively and defensively are likely to win the Stanley Cup. But since I discovered this trend, it’s continued to hold up. In 2024, it predicted three of the four Conference finalists, including the Cup-winning Florida Panthers. And then in 2025, the Panthers were again in that group.
It’s far from a pure science, especially when it doesn’t predict the Cup winner outright. But it does narrow down the field to a pool of four or five teams. After that, you can sometimes shrink it further when noting other factors, whether it’s taking into account their strengths and weaknesses beyond their chance creation and suppression or looking back at previous playoff performances and seeing if they’ve learned or improved on those mistakes.
Today, I looked into the five teams who are following this trend and could be on their way to a Cup if they continue this play. But first, let’s look at the teams that fall into the 2022 Avalanche category.
On the cusp
The Columbus Blue Jackets have seen their play elevate in recent months after the hiring of Rick Bowness. But they’ve actually played close to a Cup contender all year with a ninth-ranked offense (2.93 5v5 xGF/60) and a 13th-ranked defense (2.68 5v5 xGA/60). Funny enough, since Bowness took over on Jan. 12, it’s Columbus’ defense which is their stronger suit. They’re sixth in the league in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.49) compared to a 16th-ranked offense (2.81 5v5 xGF/60). If they can find a middle ground, they’ll be a formidable opponent in the playoffs… should they make it.
As for the teams playing Cup-caliber defense, it’s no surprise seeing the Vegas Golden Knights here. While their offense (2.78 5v5 xGF/60, 14th) isn’t as bad as their scoring struggles pre-Bruce Cassidy firing, this is a team geared more towards defense, especially with two-way threats up front like Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone and, when healthy, William Karlsson. As a result, they sit second in 5v5 xGA/60 with 2.42.
Carolina Hurricanes
5v5 xGF/60: 3.33 (1st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.59 (8th)
The Hurricanes are a mainstay on this list. Ever since Rod Brind’Amour took over as head coach of the team, Carolina has worked with a sense of structure which has allowed them to play consistent high-end defense and an aggressive forecheck which creates plenty of chances. That combined with the personnel to complement these systems has made Carolina a consistent threat for the Stanley Cup. However, they’ve lacked consistency with their finishing and goaltending in the playoffs to go all the way.
The Canes are once again in this group of elite teams. While their chance suppression is a tad lower than what we usually see from them, this has been the case for two consecutive seasons. But it’s their supreme chance creation which makes them a threat on a night-to-night basis. The fact they aren’t converting on those chances with the sixth-worst 5v5 shooting percentage at 8.56% is a continued concern. And yet, the biggest obstacle for their Cup chances may be their goaltending. Brandon Bussi is inexperienced and has struggled of late, while Frederik Andersen is past his prime and has had a poor season.
Colorado Avalanche
5v5 xGF/60: 3.3 (2nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.52 (t-5th)
I mean, no duh. While we’ve seen some teams have incredible starts by shooting the lights out or relying on a hot goaltender, the Avalanche’s run this season is backed by excellent numbers. Sure, they’ve had a bit of luck boosting their numbers with a 62.64% 5v5 goals share (compared to a 56.66% 5v5 xGF%). But this is still a team playing like a Cup contender. They have a high-end offense which creates chances, and a strong defense which has supported their goaltenders. And unlike the Hurricanes, the Avalanche have the finishing talent (9.99% 5v5 SH%, 13th) and the goaltending (91.63% 5v5 SV%, third).
Of course, if there is one concern with the Avalanche, it’s how they have outperformed their 5v5 xGF% this season, even if it’s still a good mark. I’ve delved into this topic in the past, but the reason the Presidents’ Trophy winner’s struggle in the playoffs is because, despite often being at least a top-five team in the league, they win the Presidents’ Trophy by peaking too early and getting lucky in the regular season. By the time the playoffs come around, the luck is gone, and they either regress the other way or eventually encounter one of the other teams at their level who are getting the bounces at that point in time. As great as Colorado is, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they got some bad luck at the wrong time.
Ottawa Senators
5v5 xGF/60: 2.94 (t-7th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.36 (1st)
The Senators may be the most surprising team on this list, but anyone who’s watched them this season knows the structure they play with is championship-level. Injuries have played a role in the team still lingering in the Eastern Conference playoff race, especially to key players like Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Brady Tkachuk, not to mention Linus Ullmark’s absences managing his mental health. But what’s really set Ottawa back is their goaltending, as their 88.93% 5v5 SV% is the fourth-worst in the league.
If not for their netminding, the Sens would be considered as one of the elite defenses in the league. They are the best team at suppressing chances at even strength and are even the best at doing so while shorthanded. Their chance creation is a touch under elite but still among the best in the league. And that’s supported by a talented group with Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens, along with Sanderson and Chabot on the back end. If Ottawa can get even league-average goaltending, they’ll be quite the foil for a top team in the playoffs, even the heavy hitters like the Hurricanes and Lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning
5v5 xGF/60: 3.03 (5th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.52 (t-5th)
Speaking of the Lightning, they might be the best team in the Eastern Conference this season. The Canes (56.28%) and Sens (55.48%) have the better 5v5 xGF% than Tampa (54.57%) this season. But while Carolina does it with a league-leading offense and only a really good defense, and Ottawa the same but with their defense leading the way, the Lightning do it with a consistent two-way game. As a result, they and Colorado are the only teams in the top five in both 5v5 xGF/60 and xGA/60.
Perhaps what impresses me most about the Lightning this season is how we haven’t seen them in their full form due to injuries. They’ve been top five in man games lost for most of the season and have been without Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Brayden Point for large stretches. And yet, they have nine defensemen who are more than capable of playing in the NHL, four strong forward lines, and unlike the other contenders here, they have one of the best and most experienced goalies in the league. There’s a lot to like about this Tampa team, and even if there are some strong contenders in the East, none is as flawless as the Lightning.
Utah Mammoth
5v5 xGF/60: 2.91 (10th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.6 (9th)
That’s right, the second Western Conference team on this list is coming out of the Central Division. But it’s not the Dallas Stars. It’s not the Minnesota Wild. It’s actually the Mammoth. They’re another surprise on this list, as they don’t present themselves as the powerhouse the Stars and Wild do. But Utah has put up better numbers than either team. Now, they’re on the lower end of this Cup contender tier in terms of their numbers. But they should still be taken seriously, especially when they might be in the best spot in the Central.
That’s because the Mammoth are likely to land the first Wildcard spot in the West, which means they get to bypass the Central. While the Edmonton Oilers and the Golden Knights are on the verge of Cup contention based on this trend and are much more experienced, both teams have dealt with shaky goaltending. And then the Anaheim Ducks are one of the weaker teams this season to make the playoffs from an analytical perspective. With a path through a weaker Pacific Division, you could see how Utah could find themselves in at least the West Final.
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