2026 NHL Draft Lottery Odds: Which teams have the best chance to select first overall?
It’s that time of year again.
The 2026 NHL Draft will take place this June, with the lottery expected sometime in the spring. This will also be the second incarnation of the decentralized draft, meaning all 32 teams will remain home while players are selected in person in a location still to be determined (though multiple reports have surfaced suggesting Buffalo is the frontrunner).
Gavin McKenna entered the season as the projected No. 1 pick and is still expected to go quite high. But forwards Ivar Stenberg and Tynan Lawrence, as well as defensemen Keaton Verhoeff, Alberts Smits and Chase Reid, among others, have all put up strong arguments to be the first player chosen.
Teams can only win the lottery twice in a five-year span. It’s been rare to see a team with minuscule odds win it all, but it happened in 2020 when the New York Rangers won the lottery with the 14th-best odds and took Alexis Lafreniere. Under the new rules, only the bottom 11 teams now qualify for a shot at the No. 1 overall pick, and the New York Islanders pulled it off with the 10th best odds of 3.5 percent last season, picking defenseman Matthew Schaefer.
Key Dates:
- End of Regular Season: April 16
- NHL Draft Lottery: TBA
- NHL Draft Combine: June 1-7 at the LECOM Harborcenter in Buffalo, N.Y.
- NHL Draft: Fri, Jun 26, 2025 – Sat, Jun 27, 2025, (Location TBD)
Projected Top 5 Prospects
- Gavin McKenna, LW (Penn State University)
- Keaton Verhoeff, RHD (University of North Dakota)
- Ivar Stenberg, LW (Frolunda)
- Tynan Lawrence, C (Boston University)
- Chase Reid, RHD (Soo Greyhounds)
2026 NHL Draft Lottery Odds
Games completed as of January 8
| Rank | Team | Points % | No. 1 Pick Odds |
| 1 | Winnipeg Jets | .417 | 25.5% |
| 2 | Vancouver Canucks | .430 | 13.5% |
| 3 | Calgary Flames | .455 | 11.5% |
| 4 | St. Louis Blues | .477 | 9.5% |
| 5 | Columbus Blue Jackets | .500 | 8.5% |
| 6 | Chicago Blackhawks | .500 | 7.5% |
| 7 | New York Rangers | .511 | 6.5% |
| 8 | Anaheim Ducks | .511 | 6.0% |
| 9 | Utah Mammoth | .511 | 5.0% |
| 10 | Nashville Predators | .512 | 3.5% |
| 11 | New Jersey Devils | .523 | 3.0% |
Reminder: as a result of Draft Lottery rule changes made effective in 2021, a team may only move up a maximum of 10 spots from their finishing position. That means only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick.
Therefore, instead of the published odds, which indicate the 32nd-place team has an 18.5 percent chance – which was accurate when all 16 non-playoff teams had a crack at the No. 1 pick – the additional percentages from those five clubs are effectively applied to the 32nd-place finisher, hence the 25.5 percent odds.
Of note: the National Hockey League has previously ruled that the Ottawa Senators must forfeit their own first-round pick in 2026 as punishment for their role in the invalidated deal between the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks ahead of the 2022 trade deadline.
The league ruled that the Senators had not been forthright with the Golden Knights about the trade protection in Dadonov’s deal when they traded the veteran winger to Vegas in 2021. When the Golden Knights subsequently attempted to flip Dadonov to Anaheim, they did so without knowing that the Ducks were on his ‘no-trade’ list.
Recent NHL Draft Lottery Results
| Year | Winner (Previous Seed) | Original No. 1 Seed | First Overall Pick |
| 2020 | New York Rangers (14) | Detroit Red Wings | Alexis Lafreniere |
| 2021 | Buffalo Sabres (1) | Buffalo Sabres | Owen Power |
| 2022 | Montreal Canadiens (1) | Montreal Canadiens | Juraj Slafkovsky |
| 2023 | Chicago Blackhawks (3) | Anaheim Ducks | Connor Bedard |
| 2024 | San Jose Sharks (1) | San Jose Sharks | Macklin Celebrini |
| 2025 | New York Islanders (10) | San Jose Sharks | Matthew Schaefer |
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