What should selling look like for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
TORONTO – The Toronto Maple Leafs are in unfamiliar territory.
With a 27-24-10 record, the Leafs find themselves in last place in the Atlantic Division, fourth from last in the Eastern Conference and 21st in the league. They’re seven points behind the Boston Bruins for the final Wildcard spot in the East but have played two more games. If you look at most places with playoff odds, the Leafs’ chances of making the playoffs fall under 5%. It’s beginning to look like Toronto will be without playoff hockey for the first time in the Auston Matthews era.
If it hadn’t become apparent from the Leafs’ play throughout the entire season, these next few days before the Trade Deadline should see the Leafs as sellers. Even if their three-game winning streak before the Olympic break had some thinking there was a chance Toronto turned things around, three flat efforts right out of the break should be the nail in the coffin for that conversation. Even if this team somehow sneaks into the playoffs, they won’t make any noise. Of course, the Trade Deadline looms large, but that doesn’t excuse their recent play.
“There’s no secret what [the deadline] is and what that can bring, and understandably so,” Leafs center John Tavares said about the impact the deadline has on the team. “It doesn’t just affect your career, but obviously your life as a whole. I think to say it doesn’t or to neglect that, I’m not sure everyone would feel that way.
“But there’s a responsibility, there’s a job to do. There’s a great opportunity, not only playing in the National Hockey League, but to play here in Toronto and to put the Maple Leaf on your chest.”
“It’s not only here, there’s other places, too,” Leafs head coach Craig Berube said. “Everybody’s different and their situation is different. But again, they’re Leafs today, so we need them to play for us. And they’re professionals. They got to deal with that. Nobody can deal with it for them. They got to deal with it, and they got to go play. They got to do the job.”
The season has been a massive failure for the Leafs. They need to extract as much value as they can, and at this point, that will come from the trade market.
But selling doesn’t mean the Leafs have to punt on this core and rebuild. There is still a path for turning things around and returning to contention, and selling is the key to making that happen.
Toronto is lacking in draft picks and prospects to develop into useful players or use as assets to improve the team via trade, and they can’t only look to build this team through free agency. If the Leafs want to improve this team for next year, the year after or whenever, they need to refill the cupboards, and selling at the deadline is how they do so.
So what does selling look like for the Maple Leafs? Let’s break it down.
Figure out the plan with pending UFAs
The Leafs have four pending unrestricted free agents this season: forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton & Bobby McMann, and defenseman Troy Stecher. Toronto should explore the market for all four and see what they can get in return. But at the same time, the Leafs should also gauge what these players want on their next contracts and figure out if the price is worth it.
Out of those names, McMann will have the most trade value, as he’s a physical winger who’s good for 15-20 goals every season, something plenty of teams will want on their roster in the playoffs. He’s Toronto’s only UFA for whom we have some idea of what he wants on his next contract, somewhere in the $5 million range. But he could also fetch the biggest return and give the Leafs at least one good asset at the deadline.
“I think he’s taking advantage of his speed and shot for sure. He can create a lot with his speed separation,” Berube said on what has allowed McMann to succeed in the NHL. “I still think that there’s more to him, understanding his big body, being around the net more and scoring more goals, but in general his game has grown quite a bit.”
As good as McMann has been in Toronto, he’s the type of player who’s valuable when on his current cap hit of $1.35 million, not when you pay him in that next tier of salary. If he can fetch a higher-end prospect or a first-round pick, it’s a no-brainer to move on from him.
Laughton could also score a decent return, as teams are always looking for versatile defensive centers who can kill penalties. The Leafs won’t get the same kind of return as they paid for him in a first-round pick and Nikita Grebenkin, but Laughton has had a much better season for Toronto this year and has possibly rehabbed his value. Like McMann, Laughton is a more replaceable part of the team, and if the Leafs can get a decent return on him, they should look at it.
That then leaves Jarnkrok and Stecher, who are on the lower end of value returns. It’s possible the Leafs could maybe get a middle-round pick for Stecher, considering how he’s improved his stock since joining the team.
However, Stecher’s actually a UFA the Leafs should look to retain. We saw how poor their blueline was at moving the puck before Stecher’s arrival, so Toronto can take all the puck-moving defensemen they can get. Considering Stecher will likely come in at a small number, potentially even six figures, the Leafs should try to keep the defender around, as the value he provides on their blueline is worth more than a middle-round pick.
Jarnkrok could possibly return a lower-round pick, but that’s under the assumption the Leafs retain some of his $2.1-million cap hit. They could also look at their restricted free agents in Matias Maccelli and Nick Robertson, but like Stecher, Toronto should weigh the value they can get from a trade against the value they can get from keeping Maccelli and Robertson around. Both players have played well when higher in the lineup, and if the Leafs sell off several forwards, there will be more opportunities for both of them in the top six.
Explore the market for their players with term
Whom the Leafs sell shouldn’t be limited to their pending free agents. They have several players with multiple years left on their deals who could provide plenty of value on the market, and if their term is what makes them more attractive to buyers, the Leafs should inquire. Not only will it give them assets to utilize, but it will free up roster spots for younger players or potential acquisitions in the summer, especially on a blueline which has seven players locked up for next year, which doesn’t include Stecher.
The biggest name for the Leafs in this regard is Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He’s in the midst of one of the best seasons of his 16-season career, as his 47-point pace would be the second-most in a season for him. He’s been the Leafs’ best defenseman for several stretches of the season, and with two years left on his contract after this season at a reasonable $3.5 million, teams will certainly look to bring in a player of his quality on a reasonable contract.
The Leafs should explore moving on from Ekman-Larsson as his value will likely never be higher during his time with the team. Not only has his season been that good, but at 34 years old, he doesn’t have a lot of room to get better. Even if he has been Toronto’s best defenseman this year, the Leafs need the assets and the roster space, and OEL has one of the best chances at getting that for Toronto.
In addition to Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit are other options on the blueline for the Leafs to explore moving. Carlo hasn’t been a strong fit in Toronto since joining the team, and while they won’t get a return for Carlo like what the Leafs gave up for him, there is still a market for a right-shot defensive defenseman who is signed for next season at a cap hit under $4 million, with some of it retained by Boston.
Benoit might not have the same market value as OEL or Carlo, but with his struggles over the past two years (a 0.112 5v5 regularized adjusted plus-minus expected goals against per 60 minutes), just removing him from the roster may be beneficial for Toronto next season. Any asset they can get for him is a plus.
Up front, Max Domi and Nicolas Roy are possibilities to move at the Trade Deadline. Roy seems to have the stronger chance of moving, with the slightly cheaper cap hit and the defensive reliability which comes with his game. He also provides experience for any team as a Stanley Cup winner in 2023 with the Vegas Golden Knights.
Domi brings higher highs than Roy with Domi’s playmaking, along with the occasional spotlight moments in the playoffs, but he also brings much lower lows with a porous defensive game. There’s also the matter of his contract, which has two years left after this season at $3.75 million per year. It was a questionable deal for Treliving to sign at the time and could hamper his value on the market. That said, it’s also the kind of contract you look to move when given the possibility, so if teams are interested, the Leafs shouldn’t hesitate. But it’s more likely they would need to give a team a sweetener to take on his contract.
And then there’s Anthony Stolarz. The Leafs have a looming logjam in net next season, with Stolarz and Joseph Woll both locked up for at least two years beyond this one, while Dennis Hildeby is waiver eligible next season and probably won’t make it back to the AHL. Hildeby and Woll have been the better goalies this season and both are younger, so they make more sense for a retooling team to build around.
But Stolarz has an extension kicking in next season at four years for $3.75 million per year. Will teams want to take on his contract considering his poor performance this season? Also, would it make sense for the Leafs to sell so low on him considering how good he’s been the past couple seasons? Maybe it’s a move better served for the summer.
How much the Leafs sell will also depend on another factor: their 2026 first-round pick. Unless the pick winds up in the top-five, either by them falling into the bottom five of the standings or via the lottery, it belongs to the Bruins. If the Leafs think their poor performance this season is a one-off and want to use this pick, then they could sell off everyone I’ve named so far and freefall down the standings. If they want to not worry about giving a pick to Boston in 2028 and just let them have the 2026 pick, then Toronto won’t want to be too bad down the stretch and try to decrease the value of their pick.
Weaponize cap space
According to PuckPedia, the Leafs have just under $1.1 million in salary cap space right now and are projected to have just more than $5 million in space at the Trade Deadline. One advantage to selling at this point of the season is how you don’t have to nickel and dime every trade to save where you can and maximize the competitiveness of your roster while keeping under the cap. The Leafs’ cap space has gone from a headache to an asset, one the Leafs can use to get more picks and prospects.
The easiest way for the Leafs to do so is by retaining salary. The Leafs don’t have any retained salary on their books, so they should look to use their three slots when they can, especially on their UFAs. They will for sure have to retain on Jarnkrok for any return, but imagine how much more valuable McMann would be to a Stanley Cup contender at a $675,000 cap hit.
Another way to utilize their cap space is by taking on bad money. Take what former Leafs’ general manager Kyle Dubas did with the Pittsburgh Penguins last week. He had a pending UFA in Brett Kulak, and sent him to the Colorado Avalanche for Samuel Girard and a second-round pick. By taking on Girard’s $5-million cap hit for this and next season, he not only got a pick for the deal, but also potentially upgraded on his blueline with Girard’s offensive upside, and he may be given a better opportunity to do so in Pittsburgh.
These are potential deals the Leafs could also look to make, taking on short-term salary to not only increase the potential return on a trade but also to add a roster player to play out the rest of this season and potentially next year. Toronto is still going to need bodies next season (more on that in a moment), and if they target the right players, it could help towards fielding a competitive roster for next season. That could look like Viktor Arvidsson or Patrik Laine (whose deals end at the end of the season), or maybe Warren Foegele or Andrew Mangiapane (whose deals carry into next year).
Give the Marlies ice time
If the Leafs don’t take on too many contracts from other teams to occupy their roster spots, selling at the trade deadline will give them the opportunity to see what they have with their younger players. Jacob Quillan, Marshall Rifai, Henry Thrun, William Villeneuve and Luke Haymes are all players in their mid-20s whom the Leafs need to begin to make their minds on but have gotten limited-to-no playing time at the NHL level. Even Easton Cowan hasn’t had a consistent role on the team, and he’s been on the NHL roster for a majority of the season.
Should the Leafs move on from several UFAs and players with term at the deadline, they’d be smart to fill the openings in their lineup with some players on the Marlies just to get a better sense of what they have in these players. Just call them up, tell them they’re playing for roster spots next year and give them free rein to ride out the season in roles they’ll thrive in without worrying about the context. It should give Toronto a better sense as to whether these players are good enough for the NHL in a competitive season.
This could also help out with the Leafs’ recent issues of lifeless performances on the ice. While the problem is normally solved by improving the team, that doesn’t make sense for them at this current point in time. So what’s the other way to give the team a bit more of a fire in a lost season? Infuse the lineup with some youth who are competing for their NHL careers.
All in all, this is merely what would make the most sense for the Leafs to do over the next few days considering the state of the team, not what they’ll do. This year’s roster is the culmination of going all-in year after year and not winning a Stanley Cup (along with losing a 100-point Selke candidate in Mitch Marner for almost nothing), and now they’ve fallen down a hole with no tools to climb back up. If they want to improve the team, they need to restock the cupboard and give themselves as many assets as possible to work with. The Leafs are also the sixth-oldest team in the league, so it wouldn’t hurt to get a little bit younger either.
But who’s to say the Leafs do any of what I mentioned above? Last year aside, general manager Brad Treliving has a reputation for being quiet at the Trade Deadline, whether he’s a buyer or a seller, and the new ownership makeup may be wary about selling and losing out on playoff revenue for several seasons. Recovering from this season was never going to be easy, but the Leafs certainly don’t make it easy on themselves.
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