Breaking down every Round 2 Stanley Cup playoff goaltending matchup
The first round is in the rearview mirror, and as always, the action was non-stop. We saw plenty of upsets, high-scoring games, and star players playing like star players, and it dictated a fair amount of the results.
But what also played a significant role in which teams advanced or didn’t was the goaltending. For some teams, it was an elite goaltender carrying them to the next round. For others, it was their netminder struggling in the crease and costing them a key game or two that held them back.
Goaltending will once again be a key to victory in the second round, especially when two series feature the four top-performing goalies in the playoffs and another features the two worst-performing. Which goalie edges out the other could be the difference between moving on or going home.
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (M3)
Carolina Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen: 35 GP, 16-14-5, .874 SV%, 3.92 5v5 GSAx (4 GP, 4-0, .955 SV%, 7.59 GSAx)*
Brandon Bussi: 39 GP, 31-6-2, .893 SV%, 8.86 5v5 GSAx
Pyotr Kochetkov: 9 GP, 6-2-0, .899 SV%, -0.58 5v5 GSAx
Philadelphia Flyers
Daniel Vladar: 52 GP, 29-14-7, .906 SV%, 25.24 5v5 GSAx (6GP, 4-2, .937 SV%, 7.85 5v5 GSAx)*
Samuel Ersson: 29 GP, 14-11-5, .870 SV%, -9.46 5v5 GSAx
Aleksei Kolosov: 4 GP, 0-2-0, .830 SV%, -3.16 5v5 GSAx
*not including second-round games
Vladar was not only a big reason for the Flyers advancing to the second round over the Pittsburgh Penguins, he was the biggest reason. It’s not that Philadelphia was significantly outplayed by the Penguins, nor were the Flyers bleeding chances and leaving Vladar to fend for himself. But while everyone else on the roster had an okay series, Vladar was incredible. Philadelphia will have a much tougher time matching up with the Hurricanes than they did the Pens, so they’ll need a similar performance from Vladar if they want their playoff run to continue.
But that might not be enough, because across the ice, Andersen has been just as dominant in the crease. The Ottawa Senators weren’t known for their offensive creation this season but generated a surprising amount of chances in the first round, and Andersen was nearly perfect to counter it. He wasn’t the only reason the Canes advanced to the second round, as their second line was a buzzsaw. But with a lot of their stars struggling, Andersen’s performance played a big role in the sweep.
This goalie matchup is a weird one, because neither was expected to be doing this well, but for different reasons. Andersen is 36 years old and coming off the worst regular season of his career. Vladar has had an underwhelming career before this season. And yet, these two are arguably the two best goalies in the playoffs right now. Both could keep up these performances, but the holes in their resumes mean either one can fall off at a moment’s notice. It was advantage Andersen in Game 1, and a lot of that came down to the rosters in front of both netminders. That feels like what we’ll see for the rest of the series.
Buffalo Sabres (A1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (A3)
Buffalo Sabres
Alex Lyon: 36 GP, 20-10-4, .906 SV%, 13.69 5v5 GSAx (5 GP, 3-1, .955 SV%, 3.55 5v5 GSAx)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: 35 GP, 22-9-3, .909 SV%, 8.18 5v5 GSAx (2 GP, 1-1, .825 SV%, -1.85 5v5 GSAx)
Colten Ellis: 16 GP, 8-4-2, .903 SV%, 5.5 5v5 GSAx
Montreal Canadiens
Jakub Dobes: 43 GP, 29-10-4, .901 SV%, 22.94 5v5 GSAx (7 GP, 4-3, .923 SV%, 3.41 5v5 GSAx)
Sam Montembeault: 25 GP, 10-8-4, .873 SV%, -0.73 5v5 GSAx
Jacob Fowler: 17 GP, 9-6-2, .908 SV%, 5.38 5v5 GSAx
The Sabres’ tandem deployment in the regular season paid off in the first round, because a switch up was certainly needed against the Boston Bruins, and it swung the series in their favour. Luukkonen had an OK first game, but a comeback was required for Buffalo to win Game 1, and then he struggled mightily in Game 2. Enter Lyon in Game 3, and the Sabres didn’t look back as they won three of four to win the series, with Lyon playing excellent hockey for them.
While the Canadiens started the season in a tandem, Montembeault’s struggles led Montreal to lean towards Dobes down the stretch. Dobes struggled to begin the season but bounced back, particularly after the Olympic break (.916 SV%, 12.34 5v5 GSAx). He’s the guy in Montreal right now, as it seems unlikely they’ll pivot to Montembeault or throw Fowler to the wolves, but it certainly doesn’t hurt having that goalie depth just in case.
Both starters enter this series with a boatload of confidence, as they both dispatched of Vezina finalist goalies as their competition in Jeremy Swayman and Andrei Vasilevskiy, so they certainly won’t feel overmatched against each other. It feels like a matchup that’s so close, both in terms of their skill and the depth behind them, that it will come down to the rest of the team. Both teams are riding high on vibes, so we’ll see which goalie can keep those vibes up for a Conference Final appearance.
Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs. Minnesota Wild (C3)
Colorado Avalanche
Scott Wedgewood: 45 GP, 31-6-6, .921 SV%, 20.73 5v5 GSAx (4 GP, 4-0, .955%, 6.19 5v5 xGSA)*
Mackenzie Blackwood: 39 GP, 23-10-2, .904 SV%, 13.49 5v5 GSAx
Trent Miner: 4 GP, 1-0-3, .923 SV%, 2.23 5v5 GSAx
Minnesota Wild
Jesper Wallstedt: 35 GP, 18-9-6, .915 SV%, 7.71 5v5 GSAx (6 GP, 4-2, .924%, 7.61 5v5 GSAx)*
Filip Gustavsson: 50 GP, 28-15-6, .903 SV%, 13.88 5v5 GSAx
*not including second-round games
Both teams saw their goalie tandems go down similar paths this season. For Colorado, Wedgewood and Blackwood faced similar workloads, with the only difference being the 16 games Blackwood missed to injury. With Wedgewood proving to be the better goaltender of the two this season, he started in the playoffs and didn’t miss a beat. While the Avalanche weren’t in significant trouble without his performance, it played a big role in sweeping the Los Angeles Kings, so the crease is his to start this series against the Wild.
The Wild had stretches where they split Gustavsson and Wallstedt’s workloads, but they certainly weren’t afraid to run with the hot hand when one goalie was running with it. Wallstedt had the edge to start the season, and while Gustavsson took over for most of the season, his game fell apart after losing the Sweden starting job at the Olympics (.895 SV%, -2.89 5v5 GSAx). Wallstedt was much better (.918 SV%, 2.06 5v5 GSAx) in that time, and it earned him the start in the playoffs. As a result, Wallstedt was the starter for the first round against the Dallas Stars and put up a similar performance to Wedgewood’s.
The parallels are quite strong here: both teams saw their backup goalies usurp the starters for the main gig in the playoffs and play well. But at the same time, the now-backups in Blackwood and Gustavsson are just as good and can come in if Wedgewood or Wallstedt struggle. Both had forgettable Game 1s, so a couple more subpar games for either of them and a change could certainly happen.
This once again feels like a matchup which will be dictated by the teams in front of them. Both are uber-talented, can dominate for lengthy stretches and will certainly put each other to the test. That said, either goalie is capable of standing on their head and winning a series for their team – or letting in every other shot and losing the series.
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Anaheim Ducks (P3)
Vegas Golden Knights
Carter Hart: 18 GP, 11-3-3, .891 SV%, -8.12 5v5 GSAx (6 GP, 4-2, .898 SV%, -4.82 5v5 GSAx)
Akira Schmid: 34 GP, 16-10-6, .893 SV%, 11.36 5v5 GSAx
Adin Hill: 27 GP, 10-9-6, .870 SV%, -10.73 5v5 GSAx
Carl Lindbom: 8 GP, 2-4-2, .873 SV%, -2.81 5v5 GSAx
Anaheim Ducks
Lukas Dostal: 56 GP, 30-20-4, .888 SV%, 12.82 5v5 GSAx (6 GP, 4-2, .874 SV%, -4.25 5v5 GSAx)
Ville Husso: 20 GP, 10-8-2, .884 SV%, -0.55 5v5 GSAx (1 GP, 0-0, .909 SV%, 0.61 5v5 GSAx
Petr Mrazek: 10 GP, 3-5-0, .858 SV%, -3.81 5v5 GSAx
Vyacheslav Buteyets: 1 GP, 0-0-0, .769 SV%, -0.95 5v5 GSAx
Every series has featured goalies putting together excellent playoff performances, but in the Pacific Division, where the goaltending will be a factor for a different reason: which goalie will be capable of not losing the series for their team? Both struggled immensely in the first round, but got there through different paths.
Hart has the benefit of playing in front of one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Golden Knights allowed the second-fewest 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes in the regular season (2.41), and the fourth-fewest in the first round (2.31) against the Utah Mammoth. Despite that, the Mammoth were in the series more than they should have been, largely due to Hart’s performance.
There were questions of switching goalies at various points of the series, but John Tortorella stuck with Hart after his strong stretch in the regular season following the coaching change (.928 SV%, 1.47 5v5 GSAx). That may prove to be the Golden Knights’ downfall at some point in the playoffs, unless Hart can turn around his game.
As for the Ducks, Dostal has a better resume of strong play in net, bordering on elite, but that play hasn’t come to fruition this season. He was fine in the regular season but struggled in the first round against the Edmonton Oilers. Anaheim hasn’t done Dostal any favors at points, as they were tied for the third-most 5v5 xGA/60 in the regular season (3.05), but they saw improvement in the first round, ranking 10th (2.6). Facing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will certainly hurt a goalie’s numbers, but his struggles were more on him.
That said, if there’s any advantage in net in this series, it has to go to Dostal. He has a history of playing very well, so it’s conceivable to see him find that form in the playoffs. Hart has never really shown signs of being a consistent starter, even with the Flyers, so I’m not as confident in his ability to bounce back.
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