These 2025-26 non-playoff teams could make it in 2026-27 – and these playoff teams could miss
Change is everything in the modern NHL. The rising-salary-cap world has diluted the UFA pool but forced teams to control their destinies with foundation-shaking trades. Players have more agency and confidence than ever, pushing their way out of cities. Fledgling clubs are seeing their fates turn with rookies and sophomores leaping into superstardom before they even turn 20. We’ll even see max contract terms shortened to seven years, and six on the open market, when the new collective bargaining agreement begins this September.
One consequence of his new climate: turnover, not just in actual team construction but in team success. It’s more difficult than ever to sustain dominance from one season to the next, and there’s more hope than ever for struggling teams to change their fortunes.
Between 2024-25 and 2025-26, six playoff spots changed year over year, meaning 37.5 percent of the field was new. Among the teams who slid out of the postseason were the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, the Presidents’ Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets and the Atlantic and Metropolitan Division champion Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals. Unbelievable.
Understanding how much will surely shift again in 2026-27, it’s time to play our annual game of Three In, Three Out at Daily Faceoff.
Here are my picks for three 2025-26 non-playoff teams who could make it in 2026-27 and three playoff teams who could slide out. Last year, I correctly picked four of the six swaps.
MISSED 2025-26 PLAYOFFS, COULD MAKE 2026-27 PLAYOFFS
Florida Panthers
The fruit here is so low that we’re scooping it off the ground. But we all know it’s true. The Panthers were more impacted by injury than any other team last season, and it started right when training camp opened, with captain Aleksander Barkov blowing his ACL and MCL in the first practice. Only one Panther played 80 games, and only eight played 70, with first-line center and top two-way forward Barkov missing the entire season, top right winger Matthew Tkachuk playing just 31 games and top-four blueliner Seth Jones logging 52. The Panthers still managed almost an even expected goal differential in 5-on-5 play last season regardless. They will open 2026-27 with their core players all healthy – and Brady Tkachuk added to the mixture. The idea of a top nine featuring Barkov, the Tkachuks, Brad Marchand, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen missing the playoffs seems silly. The Panthers had to trim some depth from their roster, sure, but the ice-tilting Brady Tkachuk will offset that, while Jacob Markstrom’s impact should be close enough to the outgoing Sergei Bobrovsky’s in goal. Florida returning to the big dance is a tap-in.
San Jose Sharks
I was tempted to roll the dice on the retooled Toronto Maple Leafs as a 2026-27 playoff team, but they have to fight through the vicious Atlantic Division, whereas the Sharks get the Pacific, a division whose top team last season would’ve missed the playoffs with the same record in the Eastern Conference. The funny thing is, I didn’t even like all GM Mike Grier’s moves to open the offseason; Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba will earn a combined $17.5 million to quite possibly play inferior defense to ex-Sharks Mario Ferraro and Vincent Desharnais, who secured a combined $8.2-million AAV on the open market for their new teams. Still, 2026 Draft No. 2 overall pick Ivar Stenberg joining the forward group is extremely exciting, as his sound 200-foot game should make him an effective NHLer immediately, while Mason Marchment was a solid depth edition to the forwards. The Sharks also can reach the playoffs simply through the progression of what they already had: an 86-point team led by superstar Macklin Celebrini playing in the NHL’s weakest division. If the likes of forwards Will Smith and Michael Misa, defenseman Sam Dickinson and goaltender Yaroslav Askarov even get 10 percent better apiece, that should push San Jose past some of its lame-duck divisional rivals, pun intended.
Washington Capitals
Before we even factor in the Caps’ dream offseason: this team had 10 more regulation wins than the Philadelphia Flyers yet missed the postseason. Washington had the same point total as the Vegas Golden Knights, who won the Pacific and reached the Stanley Cup Final. So even status quo would make the Caps a competitive team for 2026-27.
But then we factor in the splashy additions of Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou and Boone Jenner at forward…plus the underrated Desharnais signing for their third defensive pair…plus getting full seasons from promising rookies Cole Hutson on defense and Ilya Protas up front…plus continued progression from the rough and tumble Ryan Leonard…and, my goodness, the Capitals aren’t just a playoff team. They are pretty clearly the second best team in the Metro already and are legitimate Stanley Cup contender for what could be Alex Ovechkin’s actual final season.
MADE 2025-26 PLAYOFFS, COULD MISS 2026-27 PLAYOFFS
Anaheim Ducks
I thought of just picking “whichever team loses Leo Carlsson in the offer sheet drama” as a potential playoff miss, but the defensively stout Philadelphia Flyers were a playoff team without him this past season. What will the Ducks be if they lose their franchise center? The scariest thing is that Anaheim looks depleted even if it retains Carlsson. The entire right side of the Ducks’ D-corps is gone: John Carlson, Trouba and Radko Gudas, with only veteran Nick Jensen coming in as a stopgap so far. After buying high on checking forward A.J. Greer for $4.25 million per season and shelling out $7.2 million annually in somewhat of a panicky Pavel Mintyukov re-signing due to fear of another offer sheet, the Ducks are merely hoping to break even between what will be an $18-million Carlsson AAV if they match plus the extension owed to RFA Cutter Gauthier. The mess has been such a distraction that GM Pat Verbeek has seemingly taken his eye off improving a roster that had a long way to go in its own-zone play before losing several of its veteran defensemen. Anaheim was trending toward years of contention after ending its eight-year playoff drought, but its short-term future is cloudy right now.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins were almost a non-playoff team masquerading as a playoff team this past season. They had the 27th-best expected goal differential in the NHL at 5-on-5, and they allowed the seventh-most high-danger chances at 5-on-5, with the 24th-ranked penalty kill to boot. Two players willed them into the postseason: goaltender Jeremy Swayman, who had a dominant campaign, and 100-point scorer David Pastrnak. The good news is those two still wear the Spoked B. The bad news is that, despite landing left winger JJ Peterka and defenseman Will Borgen, GM Don Sweeney hasn’t improved his team sufficiently in an Eastern Conference that had some non-playoff teams make aggressive augmentations this summer. So if Swayman in particular regresses to being above average or worse, Boston might slip by half a dozen points and end up fighting on the playoff bubble.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings haven’t won a playoff series since 2014 and have been bounced in Round 1 of the playoffs five consecutive seasons. They tumbled from 105 to 90 points this past season. Legendary center Anze Kopitar is gone, and the Kings’ top offseason additions so far have been Mats Zuccarello, 38, Erik Haula, 35, and Corey Perry, 41. The Kings already had a mediocre roster, and they’re the oldest team in the NHL, with no impactful help expected to contribute from within anytime soon given their prospect pool is cleaned out. The Kings still have a high floor and should be an 85-point team, but their ceiling is also incredibly low. A mild improvement from a team like San Jose could nudge the Kings out.
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