Leafs clinch fifth-best odds in 2026 draft lottery
The Toronto Maple Leafs did their job to secure a their first-round draft pick for this season, now the rest is up to fate.
After the Leafs lost their final regular season game by a score of 3-1 to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday, they secured the fifth-best odds in the lottery for the 2026 NHL Entry Draft.
The Leafs are locked in to fifth last place and have a 41.8% chance of keeping their first round pick 📸: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Securing this position in the standings was important for the Leafs retaining their 2026 first-round pick because it technically was not in their possession. They had dealt the pick to the Boston Bruins at the 2025 trade deadline as part of the return for defenseman Brandon Carlo, a trade which has infamously blown up in the Toronto’s face. The pick was lottery protected, but only in the top five of the draft, otherwise the pick belongs to Boston.
The Leafs entered the night needing a loss to the Senators to officially lock down fifth-last, as they were only one point behind the Seattle Kraken, with the Kraken holding the tiebreakers to keep the Leafs below them. However, a win wouldn’t have ended those chances either, as the Kraken have games on Wednesday against the Vegas Golden Knights and Thursday against the Colorado Avalanche, so just one point in either game would have also put the Kraken ahead.
The Leafs also can’t drop any lower than fifth in the standings. While the New York Rangers and Calgary Flames were within range of doing so entering the week, both lost enough games to stay behind Toronto.
However, the Leafs haven’t officially secured their 2026 first-round pick, as only finishing fifth-last in the league does leave them open to sliding down one or two spots in the draft lottery, and still having to give the pick to the Bruins in a premier spot. The Leafs have a 24.5% chance of staying at fifth overall in the draft, as well as a 17.4% chance to move into the top three, but they also have a 58.2% chance of dropping to sixth or seventh. In the four years of the current draft lottery format, the fifth-overall pick has held position twice, moved up to second once and dropped to seventh once.
If the Leafs do retain their 2026 first-round pick, that means they will have to provide Boston with a first from either 2027 or 2028. Toronto also traded a conditional first-round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of the return for Scott Laughton, so two of their next three firsts will have to find their way to both the Flyers and Bruins. But based on some reports, the Leafs may have the ability to choose which pick goes to which team, although there’s no confirmation on that.
The Leafs finish the season with a 32-36-14 record, a significant drop off from last season, which saw them win the Atlantic Division and take the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers to seven games in the second round.