NHL power rankings: Senators getting hot at the right time

Mar 16, 2026, 08:36 EDT

Ottawa Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark (35) celebrates with his team after a win over the San Jose Sharks during the third period at Canadian Tire Centre.

Credit: Keito Newman-Imagn Images

With Hunter Crowther

With the Trade Deadline in the rearview mirror, this is the more relaxed part of the season where the only storylines are the playoff races, right? WRONG! How about we get plenty of discourse about player safety, team toughness and how certain teams have rotten cores? The playoffs can’t come soon enough.

Hunter and I navigate through the season with another year of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system in which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5v5 goal differential, 5v5 xGF/60, 5v5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them. On the other hand, Hunter goes off his own intellect and pure vibes, and together we find a way to combine it and meet in the middle.

1. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 44-12-9, +84
Last Week: 1st (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 1st

Hunter: The Avalanche dropped two games in regulation last week, one from the Oilers and another to a Jets squad coming off back-to-back three-goal defeats. The loss to Winnipeg stings more when you consider Colorado outshot them 29-18 and dominated in both expected goals and possession. One positive from last week is two power-play goals on six opportunities, an area they need to greatly improve on before the playoffs.

Still, the Stars are just three points back in the Central, meaning there’s a chance the Avs may not be leading the division next Sunday, something we never would have thought possible.

2. Dallas Stars

Record: 42-14-10, +54
Last Week: 3rd (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 3rd

Scott: The Stars continue to be the hottest team in the league, as they’re a whopping 15-0-1 in their last 16 games. That’s a hotter run than the Avalanche were able to pull off during their run of only two regulation losses in 40 games (although 24-1-2 is pretty damn close), so it’s no wonder Dallas is well within reach of the Central Division (and Presidents’ Trophy). This was a race most thought would be impossible for Colorado to lose, so sit back and enjoy down the stretch.

Hunter: To further Scott’s point from last week, it’s a shame the Stars didn’t take a big swing on their blueline, or even another top forward. If they get a favorable first-round matchup, they’ll likely face a bloodied and battered division rival in round two.

3. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 42-18-6, +42
Last Week: 2nd (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 2nd

Scott: Look, it’s only the regular season, and the Hurricanes’ proving ground at this point is the playoffs. But you shouldn’t overlook that in two of their last nine games, they took on the other heavyweight of the Eastern Conference in the Lightning and came out with the win both times. Carolina started out strong in both games (3-0 lead in one, 2-0 in the other), and while they had a hiccup or two closing them, the win is all that matters. If they can carry that energy into the playoffs, look out.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 40-21-4, +49
Last Week: 4th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Scott: Don’t look now but the Lightning might be the coldest team in the Atlantic Division (at least based on points). They’ve only won two of their last nine games, and the division lead is slipping from their grasp. They still have two games in hand to make up for the four points by which they trail the Sabres, but it is a bit concerning, especially since the Bolts are healthier. I still like them better than any other team in the Eastern Conference, but maybe this is a sign they should have done more at the Trade Deadline besides a Corey Perry reunion.

5. Minnesota Wild

Record: 38-18-12, +30
Last Week: 5th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Hunter: Minnesota started last week with a dominant win over the Mammoth, but losses against the Flyers, Rangers and Leafs — all non-playoff teams — halted any further climb up the Central Division standings. Bobby Brink scored his first goal with his new team … then got injured in the same game. One positive from last week is Quinn Hughes becoming the first defender to record 60 assists in 60 games since Paul Coffey did it in 1992-93. Is there any value in picking Hughes to win the Norris Trophy?

Scott: In my opinion, the Norris race is wide open. As good as the Avalanche have been, Cale Makar hasn’t been that strong this season, and I think it’s at least a four-man fight between Makar, Hughes, Zach Werenski and Moritz Seider. Their performances down the stretch will certainly play a big role in the eventual winner.

Hunter: As someone who’s going to be able to see Seider play next week, I would love to see him get rewarded with being voted as a finalist.

6. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 41-20-6, +35
Last Week: 6th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Hunter: Buffalo had their eight-game win streak snapped by the Capitals (which they should have won, dominating for 58 minutes then giving up a late goal), but with two wins last week, the Sabres now have a four-point lead on the Lightning in the Atlantic Division. Here’s your water-cooler fact: the Sabres are 16-2-0 in Alex Lyon’s last 18 appearances.

Scott: I have an interesting take that I need you all to bear with me on it, but was the JJ Peterka trade the Sabres’ equivalent of the Matthew Tkachuk trade? Obviously on a much smaller scale, but they moved a skilled forward and in return got a forward in Josh Doan who provides a different skill set, one the Sabres needed in their top-six. Doan is no Tkachuk (although he’s closer than the general public would think), and in this instance, the Sabres got the defenseman instead of giving it up, but I think we’ll look back on that deal as a big game-changer depending on how the Sabres’ future plays out.

Hunter: I like this theory, except nobody is performing so poorly that their pre-signed contract extension is already considered among the worst in league history.

Scott: Peterka is still young.

7. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 33-18-15, +21
Last Week: 8th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: The bad news for the Penguins is that they’ve only won two of their last seven games and are losing their hold on home-ice advantage in the Metropolitan Division (and a playoff spot in general). The good news is they’re still getting points during this slump (2-3-2), and five of those seven games were without both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While Crosby is still only skating, Malkin wrapped up his suspension on Saturday and will be back to help Pittsburgh during this final stretch run. It couldn’t have come at a better time: the Blue Jackets are only two points behind the Penguins.

8. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 36-23-8, -6
Last Week: 7th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Scott: Are they really going to do it again? The Red Wings have gone 4-7-3 in their last 14 games and have not only let home-ice advantage slip from their grasp, they’re now right on the cusp of falling out of the playoffs, with the Blue Jackets just a point behind them. It can’t end this way, can it? I get they’re missing Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp, but this is a tough watch. If the Red Wings manage to play themselves out of a playoff spot again, that has to be it for Steve Yzerman, right?

Hunter: I still think they’re going to make it, but I am reaching the point where I’m panicking on behalf of all my friends and family who root for the Red Wings. I bought my future father-in-law Red Wing tickets nearly two months ago, and at that point, it felt like all but certain they were going to make it. I even guaranteed it in our Jan. 26 power rankings. Now I feel like I’ve ruined it.

9. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 36-20-10, +13
Last Week: 9th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Scott: In the last seven games, the Canadiens have lost four times. All four losses have either been to the Ducks or the Sharks. Talk about a funny sequence in the schedule and not two teams’ numbers. There’s still a lot to like about the Canadiens right now, especially now that their goaltending has stabilized with Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler playing well. If those two can keep this up going into the playoffs, maybe Montreal makes some noise this year.

10. Ottawa Senators

Record: 34-23-9, +20
Last Week: 15th (+5)
Hunter’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Scott: The Senators are getting hot at the right time with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games, a pace which is keeping them in the playoff hunt for the time being. Unfortunately, their one regulation loss came against the one team they’re in a playoff race with their 3-2 loss to the Canadiens.

It may come as a surprise to see a team not in a playoff spot in the top 10, but that just speaks to a) how bad the Western Conference is and b) how much bad goaltending has sunk an otherwise really good Sens team. If Linus Ullmark can find some consistency and Ottawa makes the playoffs, they’ll be an annoying team to play against.

Hunter: Two weeks ago, I asked how the team with the third-best 5v5 expected goals percentage is out of a playoff spot. Today? They’re still third. I know this year is likely an anomaly, but it feels like the Sens are going to follow the route of the 2008 New England Patriots, who went 11-5 and somehow still missed the playoffs.

11. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 34-21-11, +4
Last Week: 11th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Scott: The Blue Jackets are still clicking at a torrid pace since the firing of Dean Evason, as they’re 15-2-4 under Rick Bowness. That has them just one point out of a playoff spot, and two points out of sneaking into a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division. Conor Garland certainly got off to a hot start with the Blue Jackets as well, scoring four goals in his first two games. The “do it for Johnny” storyline isn’t quite as strong in the mainstream this season, but Columbus is still one of those feel-good teams you hope finds a way to make it, especially after falling just short last year.

12. Boston Bruins

Record: 37-23-6, +12
Last Week: 10th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 13th

Scott: I expect every week to be the one where I look at the standings and see the Bruins finally out of the playoffs where it feels like they should be. And this isn’t just because of their underwhelming roster; their 46.55% 5v5 score-adjusted expected goal share is the sixth-worst in the league, with the Sharks and Kraken being the only teams in the playoff hunt with worse shares. And yet, they haven’t lost back-to-back games since the Olympic break, so consistency has kept them in the race for now.

13. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 31-22-14, +11
Last Week: 12th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Hunter: After a stretch that saw the Golden Knights lose six of seven, they defeated the Penguins and Blackhawks by a combined score of 10-2 and now go into the week one point back of the Ducks for the top of the Pacific Division. Jack Eichel currently has an even-strength points-per-60 of 3.0, the highest in his 11-year NHL career.

14. New York Islanders

Record: 38-24-5, +6
Last Week: 14th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 15th

Hunter: With two wins last week, the Islanders remain in a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division. But the Blue Jackets continue to rack up points, and it feels like one of the Isles or Penguins will get jumped by a surging Columbus squad. Three road games for New York next week could leave us with a very different playoff picture.

Scott: With how the Red Wings have played recently, it feels like they’re the ones who have to keep an eye on Columbus the most.

15. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 37-27-3, -10
Last Week: 18th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 14th

Hunter: The Ducks took two of four road games against Canadian teams and remained at the top of the Pacific Division. Their goal differential has been a point of concern for most of the season, but it’s especially worrisome after seeing Lukas Dostal’s recent performance. He’s given up at least five goals in three of his last five starts, and his GSAx in his last 10 games is minus-three. Both Dostal and their blueline will need to step up as we approach April.

16. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 33-26-9, +6
Last Week: 17th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 16th

Scott: For a team as average as the Oilers have been this season, they sure find ways to keep things interesting. Not only did Connor McDavid get into a “fight” earlier this week, but now Kris Knoblauch is announcing that the team is going to treat Connor Ingram as their starter. Look, I didn’t think Tristan Jarry was a great trade acquisition, but I never expected it to go this poorly. Oh, and Leon Draisaitl may have been hurt in Sunday’s win over the Predators. They still have a five-point cushion on the Sharks, but oh boy is that cushion sliding off the seat.

Hunter: Either the Oilers are going to fall apart and miss the playoffs or they’re going to at least make the Western Conference Final. There’s no in-between with this franchise.

17. Florida Panthers

Record: 33-30-3, -21
Last Week: 20th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 17th

Scott: For a brief moment, it looked like the Panthers were going to be inevitable again. Coming out of a Trade Deadline where they opted to not sell off any pieces, they won three straight games, and while they still weren’t close to a playoff spot, there was that seed of doubt. But the injury bug struck again with Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe at various points last week, and while Seth Jones may be close to a return, a 6-2 loss to the Kraken didn’t help their case. We’ll see what happens, but they may load manage their star players enough to keep their 2026 for the year and try again next year.

18. Utah Mammoth

Record: 34-27-6, +20
Last Week: 13th (-5)
Hunter’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 20th

Scott: It was a tough week for the Mammoth, as they lost all four games they played, with two of them coming at the hands of the Blackhawks, a very beatable team. They’re lucky they play in the Western Conference, because they still have a seven-point gap from the non-playoff teams. If they were in the East, they’d be six points out of the playoffs themselves. It still feels like their playoff spot is safe at this point, but they can’t be losing in a row so much, especially to teams like Chicago.

19. Washington Capitals

Record: 33-27-8, +9
Last Week: 19th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 18th

Hunter: The Capitals earned five points last week — two of which came from snapping the Sabres’ eight-game win streak — after it felt like they’d played themselves out of playoff contention. Alex Ovechkin has two goals in his last 14 games and four in his last 22. Tom Wilson fared no better, with just two goals in his last 18.

Scott: I really hope this isn’t Alex Ovechkin’s final year. He feels like too big of a player to announce his retirement suddenly, and this just feels like too much of a whimper to go out on. But since he likely feels betrayed by Capitals’ management, I wouldn’t blame him for moving on either.

20. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 27-24-15, -24
Last Week: 21st (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 21st

Scott: The Artemi Panarin era in Los Angeles continues to get off to a rocky start, as the Kings are just 4-5-1 since Panarin entered the lineup. They’re lucky the rest of the Western Conference playoff bubble has been just as cold, because they still sit just two points out of a playoff spot.

Even if Anze Kopitar’s final season goes without a playoff appearance, he at least has one high note during this final stretch to hang his hat on: he’s now the Kings’ all-time franchise leader in points. He may not be as skilled as Marcel Dionne, but Kopitar’s just as hard-working and helped bring the Kings their only Stanley Cups, so it’s a well-deserved achievement.

Hunter: I usually roll my eyes at the idea of having to “go for it” whenever it’s the final year of a veteran’s contract, but when you consider Kopitar is the franchise’s greatest player, and Ken Holland is the king of going full “Leroy Jenkins,” this was a rather underwhelming season.

21. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 31-23-12, -14
Last Week: 18th (-3)
Hunter’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 19th

Hunter: It was an up-and-down week for the Flyers, who won two of four games and came out with five of a possible eight points. Dan Vladar gave up six goals to the Rangers but responded with strong performances against the Wild and Blue Jackets. In a 12-game stretch dating back to Jan. 29, Vladar has given up more than three goals just once.

22. New Jersey Devils

Record: 33-31-2, -25
Last Week: 23rd (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 22nd

Hunter: The Devils split their two games last week, but Nico Hischier stepped up with two goals and two assists against the Kings. Since the New Jersey captain dropped the gloves with Leafs’ forward Matthew Knies last December, he has 13 goals and 20 points in his last 27 games. Before the fight, he was goalless in the previous 12 contests.

23. Seattle Kraken

Record: 31-26-9, -8
Last Week: 22nd (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 25th

Hunter: The Kraken go into the week with the No. 2 Wildcard spot, thanks to big wins over the Canucks and Panthers. What’s extra baffling about Seattle is that their last 11 losses have come in regulation, which in the modern NHL seems unheard of. After they play the Lightning Tuesday, the Kraken begin a six-game road trip.

24. Nashville Predators

Record: 29-28-9, -30
Last Week: 24th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 23rd

Scott: The Predators opting to stand pat at the Trade Deadline (at least in terms of moving on from their bigger names), and the hockey gods have punished them for mediocrity. They’ve lost three of four games since the deadline, and now sit four points out of a playoff spot. At the very least, their one win came against the team they needed to beat: the Kraken, who currently hold that last playoff spot.

25. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 28-28-10, -14
Last Week: 25th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Hunter: Last week, Scott gave me false hope with all his “Could the Jets sneak into the last spot?” talk. Winnipeg dropped their first two games against the Ducks and Rangers, but Connor Hellebuyck stole them a win against the Avs, then they capped the week with a win over the Blues. Hey, there’s always next year.

Scott: They’re still only five points out of the playoffs! Each passing week makes that gap larger and larger, but there’s still hope! (I can’t believe they let me down the one time I had faith in them).

Hunter: (It gets easier as time passes.)

26. San Jose Sharks

Record: 32-27-6, -25
Last Week: 26th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 26th

Hunter: The Sharks started this Eastern road trip with a loss to the Sabres, then two wins over the Bruins and Canadiens before suffering a 7-4 loss to the Senators that saw San Jose give up three different leads and three unanswered goals in the third. They enter the week one point back of a Wildcard spot in the West.

But you know what’s absurd? Macklin Celebrini leads the Sharks with 95 points, and in second place is Will Smith with … 45. Forty-effing-five. I don’t have anything to add, it’s just an insane stat.

27. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 29-27-12, -23
Last Week: 27th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 27th

Scott: Fun fact: Benoit-Olivier Groulx currently leads all NHLers with more than one game played in goals-per-game. Sure, it’s only three goals in four games, but it does put some egg on the Leafs’ face that they didn’t experiment with some of the Marlies sooner this season with how well he’s played. It’s come at the worst time though, as the Leafs getting five of six points in their last three games has them not only six points out of the oh-so-important bottom-five to keep their draft pick, they’re not even in the bottom-10. May as well give the Bruins as invaluable of a pick as they can if they’re going to lose it.

That’s the only notable thing that happened with the Leafs this week, right? That’s all I have to talk about?

Ok fine, I’ll say it. As frustrating as it was to see none of the Leafs’ stick up for Auston Matthews after Radko Gudas laid a season-ending knee-on-knee hit on the captain, I find the discourse surrounding it very dumb. Saying the Leafs will never be able to stick up for each other is the same as saying a team doesn’t know how to win… they don’t know how to do it until they finally do it.

Just look at the Sabres. One year ago, they were in this very spot after no one stuck up for Tage Thompson. Now they’re the epitome of team toughness with the same group! It’s not as much of a cultural thing as people make it out to be, or at least it’s an argument that constantly contradicts itself. My favorite part of this discourse was listening to Kevin Bieksa talk about sticking up for the Sedin twins during his time with the Canucks as an example, as if Vancouver didn’t infamously get bullied by the Bruins during their one shot at winning the Stanley Cup.

Hunter: I haven’t touched this topic yet, mostly because the online discourse is filled with mouthbreathers who never played the game at a high-enough level to understand the emotions behind an actual bare-knuckle fist fight on ice; or, it’s players who came from an era that looks antiquated compared to today’s game. It’s also rich for some players to claim “that wouldn’t have happened under my watch” when there’s video evidence it did happen, not to mention those same players carry reputations of having never met a linesman they didn’t hide behind during a scrum.

But where I’ll disagree with you is when you say it’s not as much of a cultural thing as it’s made out to be. The world of reasonable pundits and people who actually touch grass don’t live in the realities of professional hockey. Players talk, and those previously mentioned reputations carry in group chats and on Muskoka chairs during the summer. If the entire league sees a clip on repeat of a team’s captain being hit with a clear cheap shot and no one does anything, other players and teams now see a gutless lineup of boys.

And you can think it’s dumb and oafish, and you’d be right. But when I think of the Lightning or the Panthers or, maybe now, the Sabres, the group mentality is: “I need to know you’re in the fight with me … I need to know that you’re going to be willing to get punched in the face for the greater good.” And I’m typing this knowing how insane it sounds, but the idea of paying a bunch of grown-ass men millions of dollars to play a child’s game is even more absurd.

28. New York Rangers

Record: 28-30-8, -16
Last Week: 30th (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 28th

Scott: The Rangers are getting hot at the wrong time, as they’re currently 6-1-1 in their last eight games. They’re lucky they were so bad for so long, because they still find themselves in the bottom five of the league, but they’re much closer to being outside the top 10 than they are to last.

Mika Zibanejad has certainly found his game as of late: he has nine points in his last six games and is the closest he’s been to a point-per-game pace in the last three years. Maybe it’s a sign that he’ll be a contributing piece when the Rangers come out of this retool, or maybe this stretch will make for a great “pump and dump” in the summer.

29. St. Louis Blues

Record: 27-30-10, -45
Last Week: 28th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 29th

Hunter: I watched the Blues’ 3-1 win over the Hurricanes, fueled by a 31-save performance from Jordan Binnington that made me wonder if teams made a mistake not trying to acquire him at the Trade Deadline. Then I saw him give up three goals on just 16 shots in a 3-2 loss to the Jets. Ah well, we all have glimpses.

30. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 25-30-11, -38
Last Week: 31st (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 31st

Hunter: The idea of Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar scoring game-winning goals in overtime in back-to-back games in March sounds like a dream for Blackhawk fans. I forgot to add the part where they’re the 30th-ranked team in the league and 10 points back of the final playoff spot in the West. Hey, do you think Bedard will go the eight-year route for his next contract?

31. Calgary Flames

Record: 26-33-7, -42
Last Week: 29th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 30th

Hunter: The Flames dropped three of four last week, but hey, it’s alllllll going to plan. Did you know Devin Cooley has 15.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which ranks sixth in the league? Good thing for Calgary he’s signed through 2027-28 at $1.35 million. If Dustin Wolf gets back to his 2024-25 rate, the Flames might be good again by the time they move into the new rink.

32. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 20-38-8, -75
Last Week: 32nd (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 32nd

Hunter: The Canucks have played 27 games in the calendar year of 2026. Do you know how many wins they have in that span? Don’t look it up, just take a guess. If you said “five” — that would be too much, since they’ve only won four. But look at how excited they were when they tied it up against the Predators last week before winning in a shootout. That must have been a relief.