NHL mailbag: When – and where – will the remaining top UFAs sign?
The continued dog days of summer into late July mean another mailbag here on Daily Faceoff. Let’s jump right into it.
The easy answer is the Anaheim Ducks, as GM Pat Verbeek will need to go bargain shopping once he completes his internal house cleaning. After the major offer sheet that Leo Carlsson signed with the Philadelphia Flyers carrying a $18 million AAV, the Ducks have just a little more than $9 million to play with.
Forward Cutter Gauthier is still awaiting his next contract as an RFA, and you can be sure his camp will be licking their chops after seeing what Carlsson and Connor Bedard ($15 million AAV) landed earlier this month. Even if Gauthier were to come in at less than Bedard’s $15 million per season, it would put the Ducks well over the $104 million salary cap. Forwards Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano and Chris Kreider may need to be chucked overboard to make the money work.
There are still some intriguing free agents out there, such as forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Eli Tolvanen; both could be buy-low options for the Ducks to back fill their roster after inevitable cap-dumps. As for when bargain deals will be on the table, it is safe to say we are far past that point.
Trevor Zegras’ $9.125-million AAV may seem like legitimate top-line center cash, but under the modern day NHL’s salary cap, it really isn’t as high as we think. After all, he is making less than half a million more than Travis Konecny, who is also a winger on the Flyers.
Zegras’ long-term future down the middle is still in question, let alone being a defensive-minded one. The Flyers have cornered the market on third-line pivots, and centers like Noah Cates and Sean Couturier specialize in defensive awareness; the latter is good on draws as well. Couple them with newcomer Noel Acciari and it is safe to say the Flyers don’t have to put defensive zone draws on Zegras.
That being said, Zegras will absolutely need to work on his faceoffs if he wants to stick at center long term. He may not need to be a modern day Manny Malhotra, but Zegras will need to get at least relatively satisfactory at it.
This will be very interesting in how it all plays out. Historically, Flyers GM Danny Briere has elected to go the bridge-contract route with players coming off their ELCs. He did so with Tyson Foerster and Owen Tippett before each locking them in on their long-term tickets earlier this month and in January of 2024, respectively.
Matvei Michkov is a special case, mind you, as he has a major pedigree and does have a higher offensive ceiling than arguably any other player on the Flyers’ roster. His sophomore slump was well documented, but there is surely an opportunity to rebound. But even in the case that Michkov gets close to a point per game, it would be hard to see the Flyers locking him in long term right off his ELC.
If Michkov does surpass the 70-point benchmark, he could still get an AAV that pushes close to $10 million, even on a shorter term deal.
I’ve heard nothing at this moment, but that doesn’t mean much, mind you. Once Connor McDavid extended for two years with the Edmonton Oilers last fall, it was an indication that he was all-in with his current club; but if things go south this season, all bets could be off.
McDavid is the best player in the world – full stop. If he elects to pull the chute in Edmonton, he will have the pick of the litter as to where he wants to go. Especially in the current era of player empowerment in the NHL, a player of McDavid’s caliber will have all the options.
As for the Flyers, all they can do is show him (and any other star player) that they want to compete and pay up for talent. They have accumulated an impressive crop of young, talented wingers with Porter Martone, Michkov, Foerster and Tippett and proved they are willing to put the cash on the table with the Carlsson offer sheet; how much that could attract a player like McDavid has yet to be seen.
General mangers are always looking for ways to improve their club, but at this point in the summer, the Flyers are likely done. Does that mean Briere is content? Possibly no, but the Flyers did get marginally better over the summer and will look to build off last season’s playoff berth.
The addition of goaltender Joseph Woll as the backup is a major upgrade over Samuel Ersson; Foerster will (hopefully) not miss two thirds of the season again and be fully on track by the time the playoffs come around; a full season of Martone (an early pick as the favorite for the Calder Trophy) will have an impact; David Jiricek could be an effective weapon on an anemic power play. Fans may not want to hear it, but those are four factors that could make Briere and the front office more bullish entering next season than pundits and fans.
As for patience, that is play for the Flyers right now. If a McDavid or a Auston Matthews comes to be available, the Flyers need to be prepared. They are currently sitting with a little less than $15 million of cap space – something they need to maintain if they want to be in on the next superstar that comes available.
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