Are the Islanders benefitting from luck in one-goal games?

The New York Islanders‘ turnaround this season has been one of the more underrated stories of the season, and that’s been driven by a bounceback year from Ilya Sorokin and the immediate impact of Matthew Schaefer. As a result, the Islanders sit in third in the Metropolitan Division with a 39-24-5 record.

But has the Islanders’ success been legitimate, or are they benefitting from a bit of luck? Tyler Yaremchuk broke down how the Isles have gotten the bounces their way in close games on Daily Faceoff Live.

Tyler Yaremchuk: I love that they play with that passion and that desperation. You see the way they celebrate goals. They really have been playing, for a while now, every game like it’s a playoff game. And Sorokin’s good, and I think they’re coached well.

But I also think there are some concerning signs. Even in a stretch where they go 7-3-0 in 10 games, [they’re against] a lot of teams who aren’t in the playoff mix. They get a lot of A+ performances from Ilya Sorokin. Which again, the goalie is a part of the team, I’m not trying to dismiss his contributions at all. But what if they don’t get Vezina-caliber goaltending? What’s going to happen to this team?

And there’s also a key number that I look at, and it’s win percentage by goal margin. They’re the second-best team in the NHL when it comes to winning one-goal games. They have a .694 win percentage in one-goal games, second in the league. Look at how that drops [to .545] when it gets to two-goal games. And then look at how that drops [to .381] when it gets to three-goal games. They basically never win in blowout fashion. If the game’s not close, they lose way more often than not.

And what’s really interesting when you look at these numbers too is, go back through previous seasons. The teams who are usually close to the top in one-goal games, the next season they’re usually due for a pretty big fall-off.

This is the top five from last season. Toronto went from being one of the best one-goal game teams last year, big fall-off this year. Winnipeg, top of the Central Division last year. You lose a little bit of luck in those one-goal games, crater. Florida, cratered, although other factors at play. Ottawa, lock of a playoff team at this point last year, now sitting there fighting to get in. Minnesota is the one anomaly in this group.

But this is a trend that actually you can go back through other years and see the teams who are good in one-goal games, it’s almost a little bit of a measure of luck as much as it’s a measure of being able to play tight hockey.

You can watch the full episode here…