Fantasy Breakdown: Duchene traded to Ottawa in 3-way deal
If you missed it last night, Matt Duchene was traded to the Ottawa Senators in the middle of Colorado’s game against the Islanders in Brooklyn.
It’s rare to see a trade mid-game, but it’s even more rare to see a three-way trade go down in the middle of a game, but that’s what we had last night. The Nashville Predators were the third team in the deal and here is the complete trade:
 |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene (C) | 1st Round Pick (OTT) | Kyle Turris (C) |
| 2nd Round Pick (NSH) | ||
| 3rd Round Pick (OTT) | ||
| Samuel Girard (D) | ||
| Andrew Hammond (G) | ||
| Shawn Bowers (C) | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev (LW) |
The Duchene trade saga has been going on for nearly one-year, but ends with him going to the Senators. Ottawa gave up a 1st Round Pick (lottery protected), a 3rd Round Pick, Andrew Hammond and Shane Bowers to acquire him.
As for the Predators, they trade away a 2nd Round Pick, Samuel Girard and Vladislav Kamenev for Kyle Turris—who they immediately signed to a six-year deal worth $36 million ($6.0M AAV) because he was set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators give up quite a bit in this trade, but were able to hold onto all of their blue chip prospects (Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Logan Brown) so this has to be viewed as a win for them.
The Senators get a quality top-6 centre, giving them four solid options down the middle. Derick Brassard has built a nice rapport with Mark Stone this season, leaving Duchene to likely play with a combination of Bobby Ryan (when healthy), Mike Hoffman, Ryan Dzingel and/or Zack Smith. Brassard and Stone have a 52.29 CorsiFor% and have outscored the opposition 14-to-7 in 168:13 TOI at 5v5 so far this season.
Duchene is a negative possession player over his career, but that is while playing on some terrible Avalanche teams. This season he has an impressive 5.7 relative Corsi and should immediately step in an help the Senators offence. He is currently just 64% owned on Yahoo! and should be added immediately. So far this season, he has 10 points (4G / 6A) in 14 games and joins the Senators with a career-high of 30 goals (2016) and 47 (assists). Last year the 26-year-old centre was limited because of terrible Colorado power-play, but now he should see an uptick in PP production as he joins a Senators power-play that is currently clicking at 20.0% through 14 games.
Fantasy Outlook: Duchene receives the biggest fantasy boost among Senators. Duchene’s shot production is down this year, but he should be rejuvenated after getting out of Colorado. He has traditionally been a player who registers 200 shots, making him a 25-goal candidate and he should have no problem getting to 30-plus assists.
Duchene rest of season Projection:
| Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 20 | 28 | 48 |
Hoffman could be another benefactor from this trade, but that would require head coach Guy Boucher to move him into the top-6. He has been reluctant to do the this season, but if Hoffman and Duchene click early, it could be a duo that sticks. Both possess excellent speed and with Duchene’s playmaking ability and Hoffman’s release, it could be a nice fit for both players.
Nashville Predators
The Predators also give up a decent chunk in this trade, mainly because they were forced to part ways with Girard. The rookie defenseman has looked really good in limited games so far this season, but they didn’t have to trade one of their big-4 defensemen, so that has to be viewed as a win. This trade shows that the Predators are all-in after a Stanley Cup Finals appearance last year.
Turris sits at 67% owned and could also see a bit of a fantasy boost as a result of this trade. However, his addition likely affects Predators’ wingers the most. Nothing against Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons but without Nick Bonino they have been filling in as a second-line centre and Turris is a huge upgrade in that position. Turris is actually a very similar player to Duchene. He is a capable goal-scorer with strong playmaking abilities as well. Over the last four seasons, Turris has averaged 25 goals and 32 assists per 82 games and he joins the Predators with three goals and six assists (nine points) in 11 games this season. His three goals is nearly the same total as all of the Predators goal totals combined (4).
It remains to be seen who Turris will play with, but there’s a good chance that he plays with one of Filip Forsberg or Viktor Arvidsson. Forsberg has had an excellent start to the season, but Arvidsson has had a slow start after having a breakout 2016-17 season.
Turris gives the Predators a ton of great options down the middle. He slides in as their second line centre behind Ryan Johansen, Nick Bonino becomes their third line centre when he’s healthy and Jarnkrok, Sissons and Frederick Gaudreau are either fourth line centres or will shift to the wing.
Fantasy Outlook: Turris is a huge upgrade for the Predators and immediately elevates his wingers fantasy value. He has also been a strong PP contributor over the years and helps a Predators’ PP that already ranks tied for eighth in the NHL (22.4%).
Turris rest of season Projection:
| Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 19 | 24 | 43 |
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche were very patient with Duchene and Joe Sakic has to be commended for that. He got a nice return for Duchene. Let’s break it down:
Three draft picks, including a lottery protected first rounder, a second and a third. Important for a rebuilding team.
Girard has the look of an NHL-ready defenseman, recording one goal and two assists in five games with the Predators this season. It’s unclear if he will stick with the Avalanche or head to the AHL, but his development is a lot more important than Colorado’s success this season, so don’t be surprised if he goes to San Antonio.
Kamenev also could have been in the NHL this season, but the Predators depth kept him down in the AHL, where he registered eight points (3G / 5A) in 10 games. He will likely start in San Antonio, but don’t be surprised if he earns a call-up in the near future.
Bowers was a first round pick (No.28 overall) this summer and is viewed as a hard-working forward that is good in all three zones, but doesn’t have the high-end offensive potential. Bowers has four goals and two assists in his first 10 games as a freshman at Boston University.
Hammond was basically a salary dump for the Senators and gives the Avalanche three NHL-ready netminders. Don’t be surprised if the Avalanche flip Hammond or Jonathan Bernier later this season to a team in need of goaltending depth.
Fantasy Outlook: None of the players they received are likely to have a fantasy impact this season, but if anyone is going to it is Girard. The Avalanche need help on the blueline, but it would be surprising if he sticks in the NHL over the course of the season.
This trade affects some of the Avalanche current forwards both positively and negatively.
This trade hurts Nail Yakupov. He played 72.2 percent of his 5v5 minutes with Duchene and had a 51.89 CF% with Duchene but that dropped to 42.17 CF% in 37:31 without Duchene. That doesn’t bode well for him going forward.
However, it should help a player like Tyson Jost. The 19-year-old is currently out with an injury, but he should see an increased role with Duchene now in Ottawa. The former No.10 overall pick (2016) has one goal and one assist in six games this season. In the short-term Alexander Kerfoot will likely move into the top-6. The 23-year-old has nine points (5G / 4A) in his first 14 career NHL games.