Daily Fantasy Stacking: 02-28-18
The NHL is back in action tonight with a five-game slate, an ideal size for DFS. Here are my top high and medium-priced stacks of the night.
High-Priced
Alex Killorn ($5,300)-Brayden Point ($6,700)-Steven Stamkos ($7,500)
The injury to Nikita Kucherov has forced the Lightning to juggle their lineup, and it looks like for the first time this year we’ll see Point and Stamkos on a line together. It’s hard to project exactly what this trio is capable of with only 14 minutes at 5v5 on the season to go off of. That small of a sample isn’t even worth analyzing but Point and Killorn have played enough together that their numbers are. In 176 minutes at 5v5 together, Point and Killorn have posted a 62.24 SCF%, averaging 41 scoring chances per 60. Inserting Steven Stamkos onto a line with that kind of offensive production has explosive possibilities.
Jon Cooper is expected to match his top line against that of Buffalo, currently made up of Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Reinhart, and Zemgus Girgensons. Despite being one of the premier two-way forwards in the league, O’Reilly has been exposed this year when playing alongside the defensive liability that is Zemgus Girgensons. In 90 minutes together at 5v5, they’ve posted a poor 42.66 CF% and 45.00 SCF%. Those numbers line up well with what Point and Killorn have done on the year, meaning Stamkos is all but certain to a see a bevy of high-quality chances tonight.
If you want to make it a full stack, there a few different ways you can play it. If you want to spend on a defenceman, Victor Hedman ($6,800) mans the point on the top powerplay unit alongside Stamkos and Killorn and is the obvious choice. If your lineup is strapped for cash, you can opt instead for Mikhail Sergachev ($3,800) who runs the second unit with Point.
Medium-Priced
Chris Kreider ($4,600)-Mika Zibanejad ($5,700)-Pavel Buchnevich ($4,100)
This iteration of the Rangers’ top line has been the team’s lone bright spot in the second half of the season. Together the trio have managed a 55.78 SCF%, averaging just under 35 scoring chances per 60 minutes. They also average right around 35 shots for per 60, which can be broken down to about 9 a game on average if you want an idea of their floor.
If their strength is producing shots and quality chances, converting on them is their weakness. The line has been hampered by a 3.65 On-Ice SH%, resulting in a 38.46 GF% that doesn’t at all line up with the rest of their underlying numbers. They should have an easier time converting tonight regardless of who the Canucks choose to go with in goal. They’ll either be facing Jacob Markstrom, an average goaltender (.911 SV%) who would be playing his third game in four nights, or backup Anders Nilsson, who sports a lowly .903 SV% on the season. Either scenario should mitigate the weakness of the Rangers’ top line.
As far as the matchup is concerned, expect Travis Green to match his newly-constructed third line of Brandon Sutter, Darren Archibald, and Jake Virtanen against Rangers 1. None of these three have spent much time together this year but all are poor defensive-forwards. Sutter and Archibald both have a sub-40.00 SCF% on the season, with Virtanen’s 47.06 SCF% acting as the line’s benchmark. As it stands this line is simply not a threat to slow down the shot production or scoring chance rates of Rangers 1. If you want to add a defenceman to the stack, Brady Skeji ($3,800) will see the most time with them at even strength, while John Gilmour ($3,500) joins them on the top powerplay unit.