Daily Fantasy Breakdown: 03-28-18
We’ve got a four-game slate to play with as we move into the last week and a half of the regular season. I’ve previewed all four of tonight’s games with their DFS implications below. Enjoy, and good luck!
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
There’s a lot to like on either side of this matchup. The Panthers and Leafs are third and fourth in the league respectively in shots against per game, so you can expect a high-event hockey game tonight. The top-six on either team should match up against each other at 5v5 which should make for a lot of up-and-down play, as all four lines create and surrender scoring chances at above average rates. With that in mind, don’t overlook the Leafs’ third line tonight of James van Reimsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Connor Brown, who should see the bulk of their ice-time against the bottom-six of the Panthers. Bozak and van Reimsdyk also both prominently feature on the Leafs’ top powerplay unit which has been red-hot of late.
New York Rangers at Washington Capitals
The Capitals are sure to be a popular play tonight as they face off against the lowly Rangers. New York’s top line currently features Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, and Jesper Fast. The three have done a terrific job at limiting their opposition in their short time together, averaging under 20 scoring chances against per 60. The even strength matchups suggest you might be better off fading the Caps’ first line in favour of their second, who can offer you 30 scoring chances per 60 at tremendous value.
The Rangers’ sixth-best penalty killing unit might scare some DFS players away from a Capitals’ powerplay stack, but that could all be mitigated by the play of Henrik Lundqvist. Lundgvist has struggled of late, going 0-2-1 with a 0.885 SV% in his last three starts. Despite recently surrendering the bulk of the playing time to Alexander Georgiev, Lundqvist will be back between the pipes tonight. If his recent play is any indication, he’ll have a difficult time handling a barrage of Alex Ovechkin one-timers tonight.
Arizona Coyotes at Vegas Golden Knights
The third game of Wednesday’s slate features the most obvious mismatch of the night. Vegas 1 should get plenty of attention in DFS tonight as they play host to the lowly Coyotes. To Arizona’s credit, their top-six has done a better job of limiting scoring chances against of late, but they’ll be hard-pressed to match up against the 55.65 CF% and 56.28 SCF% of Vegas 1. Oliver Ekman-Larsson should see high-usage tonight as head coach Rick Tocchet opts to match him up against the top-heavy offense of the Golden Knights. He’s averaged 24 minutes a game in four previous run-ins with Vegas this year, giving him tremendous value at just $4,400 on DraftKings tonight. His high-floor makes him a strong one-off play in cash and GPP tournaments alike.
Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche
The final game of tonight’s slate offers a tantalizing matchup for the top line of the Avalanche. They’ll be matched up against one of the premier defensive lines in hockey in Philadelphia 1, who have surrendered less than 23 scoring chances per 60 in over 450 minutes of ice-time at 5v5 together. Conventional wisdom suggests fading the matchup which is what most DFS players will opt to do, but the Avs’ top line has put up some otherworldly numbers at home. Nathan Mackinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen are averaging 38 scoring chances per 60 on home-ice this season and have outscored their opponents by a ridiculous mark of 34-8. Yes, it’s a tough matchup, but playing Colorado 1 at home with low ownership is a rare opportunity in DFS these days, so think twice about fading them. As always Tyson Barrie is the ideal defenceman to add to any Colorado stack.