Are first-round draft picks overrated trade targets?

Who are the biggest stars of Trade Deadline day?

It’s not the insiders breaking the news. Or the beat writers and media delivering timely insight. It’s not the general managers making the potentially franchise-altering deals, either.

The stars of the deadline are first-round picks. Yes, ones that haven’t been made yet. Front offices are praised for acquiring first-rounders and criticized for settling without them. Even though no one knows when the pick will be in the draft, let alone who will be chosen, nothing energizes a fan base like a future first-rounder. But is the hype justified?

With the trade deadline just two sleeps away, we’re answering the question: are first-rounders overrated in trades?

🔁 Trade History

Trading a coveted first-round draft pick sounds like a rare transaction. But hockey’s competitive cycle means that many teams are pushing to win, while many others are years away from contending. The Chicago Blackhawks drafted 12 times in the first round between 2021 and 2025 alone. That’s an extra seven first-rounders scooped via trade.

Believe it or not, since the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, teams have dealt their first-round pick 100 times. That’s not even counting frequent draft-day swaps of first-round picks to move up or down in the draft. Or the two first-round sweeteners that the Vegas Golden Knights chiseled around the expansion draft. Or the many instances when a particular first-round pick was dealt multiple times.

These 100 trades originated from buying an established player for a future first-round selection. That’s nearly eight times on average from the 2013 through 2025 drafts.

What does the breakdown of these trades look like?

Calendar Cycle	Number of Trades	Average First Round Draft Slot
Trade Deadline	59	25th
Offseason	35	18th
Midseason	6	14th

• 59 of these deals are within a month or so of the NHL’s annual trade deadline. So, there’s no question we will see first-rounders moved this week. Rather, it’s a question of how many.
• 35 first-rounders were dealt in the offseason, mostly around the draft and start of free agency. The average draft slot (18th) is higher in the summer as teams are pursuing players with a year or more under contract versus a short-term rental. Erik Karlsson’s trade from Ottawa to San Jose in 2020, and his subsequent trade to Pittsburgh in 2024, are both good examples.
• Just six first-round picks were executed midseason. These are often due to contentious situations — Jack Eichel in Buffalo and J.T. Miller in Vancouver were two of them. Midseason trades averaged a 14th-overall pick as it’s more typically a blockbuster deal. The average is slightly skewed by Ottawa’s Matt Duchene miscalculation that wound up fourth overall.
  

But the biggest takeaway from these 100 trades is not the frequency. It’s the average draft slot of first-round deadline deals… 25th?!

1️⃣ Late First Rounders

Despite the caché of a first rounder, teams don’t give up high picks at the deadline. We have 13 years — and 59 draft picks — of recent history that tell us that, on average, it will be a 25th overall selection. Why? Bad teams hold onto their picks. It’s the easiest way to add talent without giving anything up. Playoff teams, meanwhile, are the ones cashing in picks for veteran players.

The latest trend of pick protection is further weakening first-round swaps. If disaster strikes and a team falls out of contention, the flexibility to defer a first-round choice to another year is increasingly baked in. This ensures the buyer isn’t left losing a premium asset. It’s smart business.

Put it all together and the breakdown of when the NHL’s 59 traded first-round picks were ultimately selected is shockingly late.

Since 2013, only one traded first rounder has been top 15 — Danil But was chosen 12th overall by the Utah Mammoth (via Arizona) in 2023. That’s it. That pick was part of the Jakob Chyrchrun deal with Ottawa, an uber-rare deadline deal of a promising 25-year-old.

Only seven of the 59 were top-20 picks. Chicago’s 2024 trade of Brandon Hagel to Tampa Bay for a package that included the eventual 19th overall selection (Oliver Moore) is the most recent.

That means 86% of deadline firsts are somewhere between 21st and 32nd overall. Why is that such a problem? Well, the talent drop-off by then is enormous…

🔮 Value of a First Rounder

We tend to think of a first-round draft pick as a future NHL player. Sure, there is a high probability the player will play in the NHL. But the reality of where they fit is as cruel as cold coffee.

Many analysts have reviewed the value of picks by draft slot over the years, each arriving at similar conclusions. This article [subscription required] by The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn a few years back smoothly illustrates the trend.

Luszczyszyn identified the expected average value of each draft position. Value is defined by how many wins the player adds over their first seven NHL seasons. That’s typically the window of team control for a drafted player before unrestricted free agency. I’ve layered in two random drafts 10 years apart just to give a sense of who went in each spot in 2009 and 2019.

Pick	Average Value	2009 Pick	Career GP*	2019 Pick	Career GP*
#1	17.7	John Tavares	1,244	Jack Hughes	407
#5	8.2	Brayden Schenn	1,081	Alex Turcotte	152
#10	6.0	Magnus Paajarvi	467	Vasily Podkolzin	280
#15	4.9	Peter Holland	266	Cole Caufield	346
#20	4.0	Jacob Josefson	315	Ville Heinola	55
#25	3.4	Jordan Caron	157	Connor McMichael	295
#30	2.9	Simon Despres	193	John Beecher	157
#35	2.4	Kyle Clifford	753	Antti Tuomisto	0
#40	2.1	Anton Lander	215	Nils Hoglander	313
#75	0.9	Andrej Nestrasil	128	Daniil Misyul	1

About that coveted first rounder…

The player drafted 25th overall should be worth about 3.4 wins over seven seasons. That’s roughly half a win per season. Woof. Landing Connor McMichael like Washington did in 2019 would be a great find — a middle-six forward that didn’t stick in the NHL until he was 23 and has scored at a 39-point pace. But there are many versions of Jordan Caron, Simon Despres, John Beecher, or countless other promising players you may or may not have heard of that went late in the first round. They were all talented prospects, but that range simply doesn’t regularly yield impactful NHL players.

Perhaps most surprising is how little difference there is at #25 versus #40. It’s a gap of 1.3 total wins in seven years — or 0.2 wins per player per season. In other words, there’s really no difference. While there are exceptions in any slot, the fall after the fourth overall pick is massive. Outside the top 10? You’re hoping for a player that can eventually add one win of value per season. It’s why teams like the Blackhawks understand you need to make first-round selections in bulk to land difference makers beyond the top of the draft.

In terms of hype, a late first-round pick on draft day is often exalted like the franchise landed William Nylander, a three-time 40-goal scorer. In reality, they’re more likely getting his brother Alex, a journeyman with 49 points across five franchises.

🎯 The Answer

So, are first-round picks at the deadline overrated? Here are the 59 players that were ultimately chosen with a swapped pick in the last 13 drafts.

As expected, it’s a mixed bag. Who among the 59 is the most accomplished to date? Travis Konecny (2015), maybe? He was part of Canada’s 4 Nations Face-off winner. K’Andre Miller (2018) earns $7.5 million per season. Wyatt Johnston (2021) has scored 30 goals three times and he’s only 22.

We don’t know how good Detroit‘s Axel Sandin Pellikka or New York Islanders‘ Cole Eiserman might end up. But for all the hype of acquiring first rounders, most of the names above didn’t or won’t have memorable NHL careers. You’d need to be a dedicated prospect enthusiast to know more than half of these first-rounders. And many are known strictly for not panning out.

But there’s context. A first-round pick is better than a pick in any other round. The selling teams also don’t have better picks to offer. So, in the realm of acquiring draft choices, what else is a GM supposed to acquire, exactly? Receiving actual prospects offers more certainty, and I’m always surprised more don’t change hands at the deadline. A prospect having an AHL impact or not looking out of place in NHL action has already passed more hurdles than that random 27th overall choice in 2027 probably ever will.

The conclusion? When your favorite team acquires a first-round pick this week, pump the brakes. It will probably be a late first-rounder. It’s fairly unlikely to result in a player that moves the needle. Late first-rounders typically have low ceilings and won’t arrive for a few seasons.

But we all love to dream and control our destiny. Future first-round picks allow front offices to do both.

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Draft data from Pro Sports Transactions; Hockey-Reference

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