2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Lightning vs. Canadiens series preview

Tampa Bay Lightning: 2nd in Atlantic Division, 106 points
Montreal Canadiens: 3rd in Atlantic Division, 106 points

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time (ET)
TBD	1. Montreal at Tampa Bay	TBD
TBD	2. Montreal at Tampa Bay	TBD
TBD	3. Tampa Bay at Montreal	TBD
TBD	4. Tampa Bay at Montreal	TBD
TBD	5. Montreal at Tampa Bay	TBD
TBD	6. Tampa Bay at Montreal	TBD
TBD	7. Montreal at Tampa Bay	TBD

The Skinny

The Lightning’s season was as hard-fought as any after getting ravaged by injuries. Only Jake Guentzel and Yanni Gourde finished the season playing every meaningful game (Guentzel sat out Game 82). Only five hit the 75-game mark, with key players in Brayden Point (63 games), Ryan McDonagh (48) and Victor Hedman (33) missing significant time.

Despite those injuries, the Lightning played some of its best hockey in years. They were running away with the Atlantic Division title until the Buffalo Sabers stormed and caught up with them. Still, the Lightning are the frontrunners in the Eastern Conference, and this may be their last run with an aging core.

The Canadiens took a very positive step forward in their rebuild this season, with their key players taking the biggest step. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield finally hit their offensive ceilings. Lane Hutson’s two-way game evolved. Juraj Slafkovsky became the dangerous power forward he was drafted for. Ivan Demidov was the Calder Trophy candidate everyone expected him to be.

Last year, the Habs established themselves as a playoff team. This season confirmed it. Now it’s time for them to become winners in the playoffs.

Head to Head

Tampa Bay: 2-2-0
Montreal: 2-1-1

The Lightning and Canadiens didn’t meet until December, by which time the Lightning were already losing players. Despite the injuries, Tampa came out ahead in both December games, blowing out the Habs in Montreal 6-1 before edging them 5-4 in a shootout down in Florida.

The two didn’t meet again until the final few weeks of the regular season. But this time, Montreal came out on top both times. They bested the Lightning 4-1 in Tampa before winning a closer 2-1 affair in Montreal just last week.

When Tampa Bay won, Nikita Kucherov was the star of the show as always, but he also got some contributions from his supporting cast. When Montreal won, it was on the backs of their top line of Caufield, Slafkovsky and Suzuki. Perhaps the most surprising part of their season series was that Andrei Vasilevskiy was only in the net for the two losses.

Top Five Scorers

Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov, 130 points.
Jake Guentzel, 88 points.
Brandon Hagel, 74 points.
Darren Raddysh, 70 points.
Anthony Cirelli, 52 points.

Montreal
Nick Suzuki, 101 points.
Cole Caufield, 88 points.
Lane Hutson, 78 points.
Juraj Slafkovsky, 73 points.
Ivan Demidov, 62 points.

Offense

Both Tampa and Montreal were strong offensive teams in 2025-26, as the Lightning ranked fourth in the league in goals per game (3.51), while the Canadiens were seventh (3.4). But while Tampa backed it up with strong chance generation (ranking 5th in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes with three), Montreal was a bit more opportunistic with their production (tied for 15th with 2.75), although both teams finished first (Montreal, 11.27%) and second (Tampa, 11.18%) in 5v5 shooting percentage. Both teams weren’t as effective on the power play, as the Habs were 10th (23.1%) while the Bolts were all the way down in 16th (21%).

What both teams also have in common is how much their star power drives their offense. For Montreal, it was the usual suspects. Suzuki and Caufield evolved their production this season and achieved their respective 100-point and 50-goal seasons for Montreal for the first time in over 35 years. Slafkovsky finally lived up to his first-overall pedigree with a 30-goal, 73-point season to complement Suzuki and Caufield, while Demidov was the dynamic second-line scoring piece with 62 points. On the back-end, Hutson added a goal-scoring touch to his offensive game to jump from 66 to 78 points, and Noah Dobson was a luxury secondary option with 47 points.

But for the Lightning, there was a slight changing of the guard. Yes, Kucherov is still one of the games best players, as he put together another Hart Trophy-worthy campaign with 130 points. Guentzel and Hagel were effective power forwards yet again, chipping in 35+ goals each (and yes, Hagel had some power play goals this year).

But a quick look at Tampa’s top-five scorers, and there’s two noticeable names missing: Point and Hedman. Injuries played a role in their struggles, but even if they were healthy, they were still a touch behind. Point averaged 47 goals per 82 games from 2022 to 2025, but this year, he scored at a 23-goal pace. And while Hedman only played 33 games, he managed just 17 points, a 42-point pace and his worst since 2013.

Outside of a 52-point season from Anthony Cirelli, the Lightning didn’t get any other notable production from their forwards, so they’ll need Point to return to form to go on a deep run. But thankfully, they’ve found a replacement for Hedman, as Raddysh has emerged as one of the best offensive defensemen in the league. He’d shown signs of improvement with back-to-back 30+ point seasons prior to this year, but no one saw this season coming. With 70 points in 72 games, he finished the year seventh in scoring by defensemen and sixth in points per game, and his 22 goals was tied for third. Raddysh not only fit like a glove on the top powerplay to replace Hedman, but he also filled another void on the unit: the right-handed one-timer the Lightning have missed since Steven Stamkos’ departure.

Both teams boast excellent weapons at the high end of their roster, and as far as production goes, both boast solid depth to match up against each other. Both teams have three additional players to hit 30 points, as Tampa boasts Corey Perry, Gage Goncalves and Oliver Bjorkstrand (who feels like there’s another gear in him), while Montreal got contributions from Oliver Kapanen, Mike Matheson and Zachary Bolduc. The Habs also had six players who’ve hit 20 points (Alex Newhook, Jake Evans, Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, Alexandre Carrier and Alexandre Texier), while the Bolts had five (J.J. Moser, Charle-Edouard D’Astous, Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg and Ryan McDonagh). It’s quite obvious that both teams are not only deep but also boast solid options in their press boxes.

Defense

While both teams are evenly matched offensively, Tampa begins to have an edge on defense. Tampa Bay was third in the league in goals against per game (2.78), while Montreal was all the way down in a tie for 17th (3.06), the fourth-worst among playoff teams. And it wasn’t because of goaltending either: while the Lightning were tied for fourth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.52), the Canadiens were tied for 22nd (2.89), the third-worst among playoff teams. The same goes for the penalty kill, as Tampa finished third (82.7%) while Montreal was 18th (78.2%).

A big reason for Tampa’s advantage on defense is that they have nine defensemen who could justifiably be in their lineup, and the lineup starts at the top end. Hedman and McDonagh have been the staples of the Lightning defense corps for years (outside of McDonagh’s two-year tenure with the Nashville Predators). But their injuries paved the way for a new top pair to take over. We already talked about Raddysh’s emergence offensively, but Moser is just as impactful in his own end (-0.097 5v5 regularized adjusted plus minus xGA/60). Along with McDonagh (-0.076), Tampa has two high-end shutdown defensemen in its top four, which will be tough for any team to beat.

And then there’s the rest of their blueline, where injuries required their depth defensemen to play in bigger roles, and they thrived. Erik Cernak (-0.149 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) is less surprising considering his experience, but D’astous (-0.102), Declan Carlile (-0.095), Emil Lilleberg (-0.028) and Maxwell Crozier (-0.01) all held their own this season. This is the kind of defensive depth teams dream of having, as it allows them to endure several injuries AND gives them flexibility to bring out different lineups if one isn’t clicking.

You could even make the argument that Hedman, usually a Norris Trophy candidate, was their worst defenseman this season. On top of his production taking a hit, he was one of two Tampa defensemen to struggle defensively this season (0.108 5v5 RAPM xGA/60, 40th-worst in the league). The other was Raddysh, who has more than made up for it with his production.

Defensive depth is where Montreal is lacking, as a majority of their blueliners found themselves struggling in their own end. Dobson (0.156 5v5 RAPM xGA/60), Matheson (0.091), Jayden Struble (0.064), Carrier and Arber Xhekaj (both 0.17) all had underwhelming defensive metrics this season, a big reason why Montreal would get swarmed in their own end at times. Even Kaiden Guhle, who had become a high-end shutdown defender for the Habs, took a step back (-0.01). The Habs high-flying style is an entertaining one, but it comes at a price.

The Canadiens’ lack of depth makes Hutson’s improvement in his own end all the more impressive. He was electric in his rookie season, but it came at the expense of his defensive play as he was still learning the NHL game there. But this season, he jumped from a 0.134 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 to -0.107, which ranks 42nd in the league. And he did that while improving his offensive game. It’s a crowded Norris ballot this year, but he should be on there.

The Lightning have the edge for forward depth as well. While Montreal was even with them production-wise, Tampa boasts some better defensive forwards lower in their lineup, highlighted by Pontus Holmberg (-0.221 5v5 RAPM xGA/60), Gourde (-0.171), Goncalves (-0.154), Curtis Douglas (-0.082) and Nick Paul (-0.07). That doesn’t include Cirelli, who struggled defensively this season (0.084). As Tampa’s go-to shutdown center and penalty killer, they’ll need his A-game in the playoffs to keep Montreal’s top guns at bay.

Montreal had a similar depth issue with its forward group. While Selke-candidate Suzuki (-0.108 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) and penalty killer Evans (-0.086) are strong shutdown options, and Joe Veleno (-0.112) and Bolduc (-0.069) are pleasant surprises in their own end, the Habs don’t have the same level of defensive forward depth, especially when the blueline behind them has struggled even more. At the very least, Caufield (-0.066) and Demidov (-0.056) were also solid in their own end, an advantage over the Lightning’s stars in Kucherov (0.136), Point (0.03) and Guentzel (0.024).

Goaltending

And here’s where the real advantage comes into play for Tampa Bay. Even if Montreal can hold off Tampa’s offensive weapons in their own end and find a way to create chances against a deep defensive team, they still have to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy. He was great yet again in 2025-26 with a .912 save percentage and a 15.53 5v5 goals saved above expected, and he has more playoff experience than any active goaltender.

But Vasy could also be a weakness for the Lightning, as his playoff experience has not shown up in the past few playoff runs (.881 SV%, -6.59 5v5 GSAx). Jonas Johansson (.884, -2.24) isn’t much of an option behind Vasilevskiy, so the Lightning need their Vezina and Conn Smythe winner at his best if they want another shot at a Stanley Cup.

For Montreal, their goaltender is not nearly as clear-cut. Samuel Montembeault (.872 SV%, -0.73 5v5 GSAx) was the starter last year. But saw his game fall off a cliff and has since become the team’s third-stringer. Jakub Dobes has emerged as the starter (.901, 22.94), and after a rocky start, he’s become a much more stable option. If Dobes falters, Montreal will pivot to their goalie of the future in Jacob Fowler, who impressed in the 17 games he played (.908 SV%, 5.38).

Injuries

Ah, the final week of the regular season. The stretch where it’s almost impossible to tell who is injured right now, as several players sat out to stay healthy in meaningless games but had to disguise those intentions as injuries. But here’s who we know is for sure out of the lineup.

For the Lightning, Hedman has missed the last 15 games for personal reasons, and there aren’t any reports on when a return is expected. Holmberg has an unknown timeline after sustaining an upper-body injury when he was hit into a loose penalty box door. Johansson has missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury, but is out day-to-day. And then the one certainty, Dominic James, is six weeks into an eight-to-10 week recovery from leg surgery, so his return is unlikely.

As for the Canadiens, Dobson sustained an upper-body injury over the weekend and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, keeping him out for a good chunk of this series. Carrier has reached the two-week mark of his “two-to-four week” timeline, so his availability could range from Game 1 to not in the series at all. And then there’s Patrik Laine, who played only five games this season and does not appear close to returning from core muscle surgery (nor is there a spot for him in the lineup).

Intangibles

While the Lightning are still treated as a poised and experienced contender, that hasn’t been the case for a few seasons now. They’ve been ousted in the first round for three consecutive postseasons and have won a grand total of four games. It’s not due to a lack of offense, either, as they averaged 2.94 goals per game over those three runs. It’s all fallen on Vasilevskiy and his aforementioned struggles, so a return to form is needed here. Considering the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers, the two teams who Tampa has fallen to, are out of the playoffs this year, they need to take advantage if they want another run.

As for Montreal, the stakes are still quite low. While they do want to take the next step after a taste of the playoffs last season, there isn’t a lot for them to lose. They didn’t make a big trade at the deadline, they don’t have any key players with expiring contracts after this season, and only Hutson’s $8.85 million AAV extension will be added to their cap picture next season, replacing Laine’s expiring $8.7 million AAV. All that matters for the Canadiens is to take it all in and learn where they can. But even then, they still have some experience on this roster, particularly in their current core. Suzuki, Caufield, Evans, Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, and Phillip Danault were all on the 2021 team that made the Stanley Cup Final.

Oh, and Martin St. Louis gets to coach against his old team in Tampa for the first time. That said, the only names still with the team from his last time on the roster are Hedman, Kucherov and Cooper.

X-Factor

The Lightning have a clear advantage with their blueline depth. If Tampa wants to advance to the second round for the first time since 2022, they’ll need every defenseman to play to their strengths and overwhelm the Canadiens offense, especially their dangerous top line. If that group can get the job done, it leaves Tampa’s equally powerful, deep offense to face Montreal’s weaker blueline, a battle that should favor the Bolts.

A strong defensive performance will also ease the pressure on Vasilevskiy, which may help avoid a return to his playoff form of the past few seasons. Considering how much his poor play has crippled the Lightning’s playoff chances in the past, they need to make sure he’s at his best again.

Series Prediction

The Lightning and Canadiens are as close as you would expect two teams who finished with identical points to be. They have a star-studded cast, deep forward groups, similarly performing power plays, and goaltenders who have played well this season. But Tampa Bay has a significant advantage defensively, especially with their blueline depth, and as the whistles get put away later in the series, their superiority at 5v5 will be a difference maker. Montreal will make the series entertaining, and may even threaten a win, but the Bolts are playing like Cup contenders this year, while the Canadiens are still playing like a young team on the rise.

Lightning in six games.

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