2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Flyers series preview
Carolina Hurricanes: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 113 points, def. OTT in Round 1 (4-0)
Philadelphia Flyers: 3rd in Metropolitan Division, 98 points, def. PIT in Round 1 (4-2)
Schedule
| Game # | Date | Game (*if necessary) | Time (ET) |
| 1 | TBD | Philadelphia at Carolina | TBD |
| 2 | TBD | Philadelphia at Carolina | TBD |
| 3 | TBD | Carolina at Philadelphia | TBD |
| 4 | TBD | Carolina at Philadelphia | TBD |
| 5 | TBD | Philadelphia at Carolina* | TBD |
| 6 | TBD | Carolina at Philadelphia* | TBD |
| 7 | TBD | Philadelphia at Carolina* | TBD |
The Skinny
This is a true David vs. Goliath matchup between two teams that have never met in their respective postseason histories.
Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour just defeated his hometown team in the first round, and now in the second, he has the chance to eliminate the franchise that traded him to the Hurricanes all those years ago.
Carolina, the No. 1 seed in the East, is coming off an impressive sweep of the Ottawa Senators in a series that many pundits had pegged as a possible opposite. Instead, the Canes swept without the Sens ever holding a lead in a single game. Carolina’s second line of Logan Stankoven (who scored in all four games), Jackson Blake and Taylor Hall carried the mail offensively, while a suffocating defensive effort by the entire team helped veteran goalie Frederik Andersen stifle Ottawa’s offense.
It was a clinic in total team hockey from a team that hopes to use that formula to make its first appearance in the Stanley Cup Final under Brind’Amour.
Philadelphia had a chance to pull off a sweep of its own in the first round, as the Flyers impressively stormed out to a 3-0 series lead over their in-state rival Pittsburgh Penguins powered by timely scoring, excellent, low-event defensive team hockey (exactly how Rick Tocchet likes it) and strong play from Dan Vladar between the pipes.
The Penguins pushed the Flyers all the way to overtime of Game 6 before Cam York plunged the dagger (and launched his stick) with a well-placed wrist shot to send Xfinity Mobile Arena into a frenzy.
It felt like a given all season long that Carolina would make it to this point and have a favorable matchup against whichever Metropolitan Division team got hot at the right time, and it turned out to be the Flyers. But Philadelphia isn’t just hot at the right time. Given how far behind they were deep into the winter, the Flyers have been hot for a long time.
Head-to-Head
Carolina: 3-0-1
Philadelphia: 1-0-3
Everything about these teams’ respective profiles suggests that Carolina is head-and-shoulders above Philadelphia, from their records, to their analytical profiles, to their positioning within their respective Stanley Cup contention windows.
But if the Hurricanes are capable of taking on the Flyers in individual games and blowing them out, they did not really prove that in the four regular meetings, all of which went to overtime or a shootout.
The first three matchups went Carolina’s way in extra time, and the last one came in the final days of the regular season while the Hurricanes were resting most of their key players and the Flyers were playing to clinch a spot in the playoffs, which they successfully did by winning in a shootout.
Top Five Scorers
Carolina
Taylor Hall, 7 points
Logan Stankoven, 5 points
Jackson Blake, 4 points
Sebastian Aho, 3 points
K’Andre Miller, 3 points
Philadelphia
Rasmus Ristolainen, 5 points
Trevor Zegras, 4 points
Noah Cates, 4 points
Travis Konecny, 4 points
Sean Couturier, 4 points
Offense
The first round was a bit unusual for the Hurricanes in that Sebastian Aho’s top line was largely held in check by a strong defensive showing from Ottawa. It was all about the secondary scoring from the Stankoven line, something Carolina has lacked in prior postseason runs.
The Hurricanes led the NHL in the first round with a whopping 3.44 expected goals for per 60 minutes against the Sens, though goalie Linus Ullmark was excellent enough to keep Ottawa in pretty much every game of the series.
Carolina’s power play has been problematic in past playoff runs, but it was excellent in the regular season, thanks in large part to the addition of Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency. It faltered against the Senators, converting at a 13.3% clip. This will mark the second series in a row in which the Canes’ offense has been tasked with solving a quality defensive opponent, though Philadelphia differs from the Sens in the way they go about it.
The Flyers quite literally did produce enough offensively to get through their first-round series, but 16 goals in six games against a Pittsburgh team that can be rather porous defensively was a bit underwhelming. In terms of the opposing defense, the Flyers are going up several weight classes this time.
It wasn’t much better under the hood, either. Philadelphia mustered just 2.17 xGF/60 at 5-on-5, good for 14th out of the 16 teams in the first round. They also went 2-for-17 on the power play for an 11.8% conversion rate. After ranking dead last in the league in the regular season with a 15.7% success rate with the man advantage, it remains a glaring red flag. The teams that have eliminated the Hurricanes historically have been well-equipped to make them pay by winning the special teams battle.
The individual production was not hideous against Pittsburgh, though no forward had more than four points in the six games, but one player Tocchet will definitely want more from is Owen Tippett. He passed the eye test at times against the Penguins, but he had just a goal and an assist to show for it, despite a respectable 0.78 individual xG/60. Tippett possesses the high-end speed, hands and shot that are missing throughout this lineup, and his talents will be needed to puncture a stout Carolina defense.
On the positive side, defensive specialist Noah Cates chipped in four points, while Sean Couturier was arguably one of the top stories of the series with the physicality, face-off acumen and even production (four points) he brought to the fourth line.
Defense
While the Carolina-Ottawa series was low scoring, it wasn’t due to lack of chances. The Canes led the league in xGF/60 offensively, but they were second-worst in the first round in xGA/60 as the Senators were able to generate a good amount of quality chances, at least at even strength.
That small-sample size factoid feels more like an aberration than an actual weakness Philadelphia can pick on. While the Flyers were the best team in the East on defense down the stretch (more on that shortly), Carolina was a close second.
Just in terms of the names on the jerseys, this Carolina defensive core is a thing of beauty. Jaccob Slavin and Jalen Chatfield thrive as a shutdown pairing. K’Andre Miller and Sean Walker perform quite well on both ends of the rink, and Miller is looking more and more like a true playoff riser the longer his career goes. On the bottom pairing, Shayne Gostisbehere and Alexander Nikishin get to pick apart favorable matchups, and they dominate both territorially and on the scoresheet.
The penalty kill is fresh off a series in which it borderline humiliated Ottawa’s top players, killing off 20 of the 21 power plays the Senators had in just four contests. Given Philadelphia’s struggles on the power play, that looms large.
This Carolina group hasn’t performed like the best defensive team of the Brind’Amour era, possibly due to Slavin’s absence for more than half the season, but it’s hard to feel like this isn’t the most complete blueline they’ve iced in the postseason.
Like pretty much every Tocchet team, the Flyers absolutely excel at limiting chances and making their opponents work hard for every opportunity. Game 6 against the Penguins was a great example of how even when the Flyers surrender volume, they don’t surrender quality. Pittsburgh controlled 72% of the 5-on-5 shot attempts but only 62.5% of the scoring chances.
Philadelphia’s defensive metrics weren’t great overall for the whole series, as they were middle-of-the-pack in the first round at suppressing expected goals, but their run to close out the regular season was so impressive that it still feels hard to project a full offensive onslaught for the Hurricanes. From the Olympic break on, the Flyers were second in the NHL in xGA/60 at 5-on-5 with a mark of 2.27. Only Vegas was better.
Tocchet’s system helps shelter its defenders from back-breaking mistakes, but on paper, it feels like there is going to be a lot on Travis Sanheim’s plate in this series. The Hurricanes were second in the NHL in goals scored in the regular season, and they will do everything they can to put this defensive unit through a stress test.
As far as the penalty-killing unit, Philly’s group came up big in key moments throughout the Pittsburgh series but did get beat a few teams en route to an 84.2% kill rate. Their PK was 22nd in the regular season, so they’ll need to find a way to keep the Carolina power play from getting hot.
Goaltending
This is an area that felt like a possible weak point for both teams for much of the season. For Carolina, it turned around quickly in the playoffs, while for the Flyers, goaltending powered a late push to secure a playoff spot and continued to stay hot in the first round.
As mentioned earlier, Andersen was absolutely brilliant in the first round, as he always has been during his tenure in Raleigh. Beyond that, he’s often faltered either due to suffering an injury or having his play slip thanks to a combination of a high-volume workload and tougher competition. With the long layoff between series and the relatively meager threat the Flyers pose offensively, Andersen could avoid both those traps here.
Andersen led all goalies in save percentage in the first round (pending completion of the other series) with a .955, and his 1.13 GSAA/60 is tied with Alex Lyon for the highest of any goalie in the playoffs with more than one appearance. If Andersen does falter or get hurt, Carolina can turn to Brandon Bussi or Pyotr Kochetkov.
Vladar was not as spotless against Pittsburgh as Andersen was against Ottawa, but Vladar’s high-end was just as good. He wrapped up the series with a .936 SV% and a sterling 0.70 GSAA/60. Philadelphia’s team defense did well to isolate him from danger at times, but he came up huge when needed, especially with his 42-save shutout in the decisive Game 6.
A massive under-the-radar free agent signing, Vladar has been excellent for the Flyers down the stretch, and so too has backup Samuel Ersson, who came up with several big wins that allowed Philadelphia to even make it into the playoff field in the first place.
Injuries
The Hurricanes made it out of the first round relatively unscathed. Ehlers missed Game 4 with a lower-body injury, and Nikishin was knocked out that same game before being diagnosed with a concussion after being on the receiving end of a massive hit from Tyler Kleven. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, Brind’Amour said both players are trending toward being ready for the second round.
Ditto for the Flyers, who are only missing a pair of forwards who would be unlikely to crack the current permutation of Tocchet’s lineup anyway in Rodrigo Abols and Nikita Grebenkin. Aside from the clichés about everybody playing through something at this time of the year, both teams will be at their best in this series.
Intangibles
There is a massive, massive gap in terms of pressure and expectations here.
It would be dismissive to say the Flyers are just happy to be here; their appearance in the playoffs is surprising but not entirely unexpected. However, the opportunity to play and beat their hated rivals in the first round means this is officially a house money situation for Philly. This is a good team with a solid young core that hopes this is the first in a whole generation of playoff runs.
Another noteworthy element at play in Philly is the fact that they did not sweep the Penguins. If Pittsburgh had no-showed in Game 4, the Flyers would be going into this series without having been tested at all in a playoff environment. The adversity of having to dig deep in Game 6 to avoid the possibility of a reverse sweep may actually play into their favor here.
Carolina, on the other hand, has a golden opportunity to finally break through and win the East for the first time under Brind’Amour. A first-round sweep allows them time to heal up and rest their veterans, and now they have a favorable matchup in the second round with no Florida Panthers awaiting them in the conference final.
Home-ice advantage could be crucial as well, as these are two of the toughest environments to play in for opposing teams. The Lenovo Center is a house of horrors in the postseason for any team that isn’t the Panthers (duh), or less explicably, the New York Rangers. Since 2023, Carolina is 15-1 on home ice against every team other than those two. While the Flyers did drop Game 4 against Pittsburgh on home ice, nobody is looking forward to walking into the hornet’s nest in South Philly.
X-Factor
For the Hurricanes, it’s going to be the forechecking at the team level rather than any specific player when it comes to the possibility of breaking this series open. The Flyers started to look worn down as their series against the Penguins progressed, and Carolina can throw an entirely different level of speed, pressure and physicality at defensemen trying to break out. William Carrier, Jordan Martinook, Taylor Hall, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis are all relentless at looking to force turnovers on breakouts, and for a Philadelphia team that could be hemmed in its own zone a lot, the Carolina forecheck could lead to costly errors in big spots multiple times.
On the other side, it’s going to be Porter Martone here for the Flyers. The No. 6 overall pick from the 2025 NHL Draft has broken out quickly after signing his entry-level contract following an impressive collegiate season at Michigan State, and he had two goals in six games in the first round. Philadelphia is short on high-end talent that can match the level that Carolina’s best players bring, but Martone’s ceiling feels sky-high right now. If he can find it, he could have the sort of scoring outburst that the Flyers will need to keep pace with the Canes. It’s a lot to ask of a rookie against one of the league’s top defensive teams, but Martone is no ordinary rookie.
Series Prediction
Carolina’s a heavy favorite in this series, and for good reason. They’re better up front, on defense, and roughly even in goal with their opponents in this series. They have the edge in both experience and rest, and the Flyers are not the sort of team that has given them trouble in playoff runs past.
After a convincing series win over an Ottawa team that profiles as a better-across-the-board version of the Flyers, there’s every reason to believe in the Hurricanes here.
At the same time, it’s hard to sweep two series in a row. Philadelphia will do everything it can to slow Carolina down, and in Tocchet, they have the coach to do it. The home ice advantage is big in Raleigh, but it’s strong at Xfinity Mobile Arena as well, and that, when combined with the physicality and snarl the Flyers bring as well as the capability Vladar has to steal a game, should be enough to net the Flyers at least one win here.
Hurricanes in five games.
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