Sources: Despite Flyers’ playoff push, Rasmus Ristolainen available for trade
With a record of 21-12-7 and occupying the first Wildcard seed in the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia Flyers find themselves in an unfamiliar spot since the keys were handed to president of hockey operations Keith Jones and GM Danny Briere, Yes, the 2023-24 season did see them narrowly miss out on the playoffs in the last game, but that year always felt like a mirage of sorts, especially when you consider they traded top-four defenseman Sean Walker at the deadline, completely cutting the legs out from a playoff push.
The Flyers want to make the playoffs this year – that much is certain. But even in saying that, it doesn’t mean their chips are all being pushed into the middle to win in the present. Briere has been transparent about the team being largely out of the “subtraction” phase entering the off season as the team entered the next stage of their rebuild, but it doesn’t mean that they aren’t open to moving players if it benefits the future.
Speaking with a team source, while he is not actively being shopped, defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is still very much available for trade. Ristolainen, 31, returned from injury last month and has two assists through nine games this season. Though mainly playing on the third pair alongside Nick Seeler, Ristolainen is averaging north of 20 minutes per game, fourth among Flyers defensemen.
Ristolainen’s game had to be completely rebuilt under former head coach John Tortorella and associate coach Brad Shaw. He was once a volatile defender who racked up points on the power play, but Tortorella and Shaw transformed Ristolainen into an all-defense, low-event second- or third-pair stopper. He has never played in the playoffs despite being drafted almost 13 years ago, but there has long been a belief that Ristolainen’s game will excel in the postseason.
While the Flyers would benefit from having Ristolainen in a potential playoff run, moving him even if the team is still in a playoff race by the Olympic break (a month out from the deadline) is something that they would consider if the price was right.
What would the price be? Speaking with a source, the Ben Chiarot trade from four years ago to the Florida Panthers would be something along the lines of what they’re looking for. The Montreal Canadiens received a 2023 first-round pick, a 2022 fourth-round pick and prospect Tyler Smilanic in exchange for Chiarot.
Not being a rental, Ristolainen would give any prospective acquiring team two seasons with him; with the cap continuing to rise, $5.1 million for a top-four defenseman for a season and a half is palatable. Additionally, I have heard the Flyers are willing to retain on Ristolainen – though that will come at a cost. The Flyers have one retention slot still available, with the other two occupied by Kevin Hayes’ and Scott Laughton’s contracts, both of which will come off at the end of the season.
Conversely to all this, I do expect the Flyers to keep their eyes open for an addition ahead of the deadline. We shouldn’t get too ahead of ourselves, as I’m told the Flyers will not be in bidding wars for the top rentals in deals that could sacrifice the future. But they will be looking around to add on the margins should they still be in the thick of a playoff race in a month’s time.
As I wrote about two weeks ago, much was hinging on how Denver Barkey would fare in a middle-six role after being called up right before Christmas. Plugging the hole of the injured Tyson Foerster (out for the season), Barkey has been a pleasant surprise, registering one goal and two assists through seven games alongside Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett. Based on conversations I’ve had, there is no imminent plan to send Barkey back down to the AHL or trade for a middle-six forward.
If the Flyers are to make an addition, it will likely be for a fourth-line center to upgrade over (Latvian Olympian) Rodrigo Albos. The fourth line has been better as of late with Carl Grundstrom’s strong play, but it is still something my gut tells me the Flyers would like to address – at the right cost. One source pointed to the Erik Johnson addition as one they could look at in regards to what they are willing to give up; the veteran blueliner was acquired for a fourth-round pick in 2024.
A lot can change in two months’ time, but it doesn’t appear the Flyers’ position in the standings will alter their’ deadline plans all that much.
Why Flyers committed to Dvorak on five-year deal
I spoke to a Flyers’ source yesterday around noon eastern time and was told there was nothing new on Dvorak. Fast forward five hours later and all hell broke loose.
Sometime during Monday afternoon, the Dvorak camp reached out to the Flyers and got the ball rolling, ultimately signing a five-year, $25.75-million contract late yesterday evening. Speaking with a team source, while there weren’t heavy discussions prior to the signing, I’m told the three-year, $18 million contract that Alex Wennberg signed with the San Jose Sharks over the weekend really put the Flyers in a tough position.
Dvorak, who will turn 30 next month, is having a career year, on pace for 50 points and playing alongside Trevor Zegras as the de facto no. 1 center. He had predominantly been a third-line pivot his entire career and had never eclipsed 38 points in a season before, so the criticism to commit five years (and trade protection in the first four years) to a soon-to-be 30 year old with said track record is fair.
I spoke to two GMs about the contract. The first GM simply said that it is “a good number” for Dvorak given how he has played for the Flyers. The second GM was quick to the point, saying, “too much for too long.” To break the tie, I reached out to an Eastern Conference executive this morning. His feeling is that the deal is solid; in regards to the five-year term, his response was, “term will always be longer than you like.”
If I’m to bundle this all together and make my own judgement, it is this: if the Flyers wanted to keep Dvorak, this is what it was going to be. Given the shallow UFA class this summer, Dvorak would’ve been one of the top pivots available; he likely could’ve gotten north of $6 million per season. Do I think he gets five years? Probably not, but that’s the reason why the Flyers got his AAV at $1 million+ less than what the market would’ve likely borne.
Now, just because the contract in a vacuum is fine, it doesn’t mean the deal is good for the team on a macro scale. Even if Dvorak keeps his production around what it is this season for the majority of his contract, it is nothing more than that of a second-line center. Coupled with Noah Cates and Sean Couturier, the Flyers have tied up $16.9 million for the next three seasons in three middle-six centers, two of which are third-liners (at best) on Cup contending teams. From that standpoint, the overall outlook of the center position and the lack of upside of the collective three does concern me.
Additionally, you have to wonder what this means for the Flyers’ center prospects and how far out they are. Much has been made of 2024 first-round pick Jett Luchanko and what his future holds. I can tell you that the Flyers’ brass was not overly impressed with his performance at the World Junior Championship. It is a small sample size, but perhaps they feel like he will need a full season in the AHL next season.
2024 second-round pick Jack Berglund captained team Sweden to a gold medal at the WJC. He impressed everyone during the tournament, registering three goals and 10 points in seven contests. The Flyers are high on him – they feel like he can be a Michal Handzus type – but he is believed to be committed to his team overseas for another season beyond this one.
The way I see it, the Flyers are not expecting internal reinforcements down the middle until at least the 2027-28 season. With the team playing well and looking to make another step next season, they wanted to retain a player in Dvorak that was working. Could they have gone out swinging on a top-line pivot? Ideally yes, but it is becoming less and less common for teams to trade their top player; the once all-star turned shallow 2026 UFA class is an example of that.
The contract term is more than fair to critique, and to be honest it concerns me for future flexibility for the Flyers. But if there is no expectation for internal or outside help at center for the next 18 months (at least), I do understand why the Flyers pulled the trigger on it at a fair AAV, even with an unideal term.
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