Generational Talent Watch: Schaefer, Celebrini, Bedard and Carlsson producing at historic levels
Heading into this season, the torch of future NHL superstardom had an air of uncertainty.
Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar weren’t going anywhere. But they hadn’t been pushed by anyone new in years. The 2024-25 points race didn’t feature a player under 25 years old before Lucas Raymond in a tie for 26th. Among players under 22, Wyatt Johnston (tied for 41st) was the top scorer. There was no shortage of brilliant young talents ready to explode. It just hadn’t happened yet.
Fast forward to 2025-26. An avalanche of historic breakouts from recent top draft picks has cascaded into arenas near you. The presumptive heirs have quickly become the heirs apparent.
Using era adjusted stats to level the intergenerational playing field, we’re exploring the feats of four phenoms: Matthew Schaefer (18 years old); Macklin Celebrini (19); Connor Bedard (20); and Leo Carlsson (21 next week). The future has arrived.
Note: When discussing scoring paces today, it’s critical to acknowledge that a 30- or 35-game pace is not a full season. Paces are exciting to dream about but remain unfulfilled until the schedule is complete.
Matthew Schaefer, Age-18 Season
Drafted: 1st overall, New York Islanders, 2025
NHL season: 1st
Elite Company: Unlike the forwards in today’s article, Schaefer has few peers. Not just in terms of rookie production, but by virtue of 18-year-old full-time NHL defensemen rarely existing. By comparison, Makar was playing Tier II Junior A hockey at the same age — three years from his NHL debut. In the league’s 108 seasons, Schaefer is only the 25th blueliner to play 30-plus games at his age. He’s only the fifth to do so in the salary-cap era and the first since Rasmus Dahlin (2018-19). Both by era adjusted output and ice time (23:48 per night), Schaefer is a unicorn. Only Phil Housley (1982-83) and G.O.A.T. Bobby Orr (1966-67) are within 11 points of the dynamic teen’s adjusted 55-point pace. He’s also the only defender his age to sniff an adjusted 20-goal pace. It’s mystifying that Schaefer will still be a teenager until September 2027.
Reasons for Caution: There are very few. Schaefer’s faced increasingly difficult competition and responded well. He’s already excellent at driving play both offensively and defensively at even-strength, preposterously so for his age. The former Erie Otter isn’t propped up by unsustainable puck luck. He’s just exceptionally good and an elite pro already. If we’re going to nitpick, he’s been a weak penalty killer in limited minutes, but he’s got years to add that element to his jaw-dropping toolkit.
What’s Next?: Surprisingly, few 18-year-old NHL defensemen have turned into perennial Norris Trophy candidates. Dahlin and Aaron Ekblad have each peaked at sixth place in voting. Jakob Chychrun is only leveling up in his 10th season. But Schaefer’s first 10 weeks have been in another stratosphere in terms of skill and overall impact. He’s already one of the fastest defensemen in the league per NHL Edge data. It’s only been 10 weeks, so we have to tread lightly, but Schaefer’s current teenage performance is already star quality. His ceiling has few limits right now.
Macklin Celebrini, Age-19 Season
Drafted: 1st overall, San Jose Sharks, 2024
NHL season: 2nd
Elite Company: Well, that escalated quickly. Celebrini’s sophomore season has blown the doors off any reasonable expectations of his offensive totals. Through 34 games, with proper context for scoring environment, the Sharks’ franchise player is sandwiched between two prodigious 19-year-olds. Perhaps you’ve heard of Sidney Crosby and Wayne Gretzky. The most remarkable part might be that Celebrini could cool off completely and still have a historical showing. If he collapsed to a point-per-game by season’s end, it would remain a top-10 scoring season for his age. While the age-19 seasons of Gretzky, McDavid and Mario Lemieux were their rookie years, Celebrini being listed above them is a jarring sight. That San Jose’s roster is comprised mostly of a handful of talented kids and veteran castoffs only adds to the prestige.
Reasons for Caution: For a player that entered the league mentioned as having the all-around game of Jonathan Toews 2.0, Celebrini has struggled to control play. Per Natural Stat Trick on-ice rates, of the top 286 forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, Celebrini is 244th in expected goals for and 231st in expected goals against. That makes his 42.6 xGF% the 23rd-worst mark among regular forwards. Some of that is the state of his team and some of that is chasing offense. Given he’s riding one of the NHL’s highest even-strength PDO marks (109.7), we can reasonably expect an eventual drop in output for Celebrini.
What’s Next?: The average forward picked first overall in the cap era sees a 10-point jump from their second to third seasons. As easy as it would be to pencil in Celebrini for 115 points this year, 125 next year, and an Art Ross Trophy-winning 135 by his 21st birthday, it doesn’t always work that way. The immediate sensations haven’t had that kind of uptick. Each of Crosby (127 adjusted point pace to 120), McDavid (110 to 110), and Stamkos (102 to 99) flatlined or lost point pace from Year 2 to Year 3. It’s a function of tighter opposition, maturing team priorities as rebuilds advances and having less room for improvement. With a couple of exceptions, however, the leaderboard above is a list of Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers. That company is Celebrini’s new upside.
Connor Bedard, Age-20 Season
Drafted: 1st overall, Chicago Blackhawks, 2023
NHL season: 3rd
Elite Company: Bedard’s upper-body injury will temporarily halt a fun breakout by a special player saddled with immense expectations. An offseason focus on speed and explosiveness — supported by NHL Edge metrics — has been a key factor in Bedard’s glow up. Some of us thought his launch would happen last season but his sophomore showing didn’t move the needle. A slower but steady road to superstardom like Patrick Kane remained a great path. Instead, Bedard has gone nuclear through 31 games. The pace the third-year center is riding has few equals among 20-year-olds. Bedard’s era adjusted point rate stares up at only Gretzky and Crosby. Bedard’s sniping pace hangs with Alex Ovechkin’s 20-year-old rookie season. Take it away, Panger: “Holy jumpin’!” While Chicago is improving and new talent is marinating around Bedard, he’s often been a one-man show, dragging the Hawks from the NHL’s cellar.
Reasons for Caution: There’s often some red flags when a player of any age or pedigree nearly doubles their output overnight. Bedard’s bonkers pace is no exception. His individual 18.4% shooting percentage is extremely high for a volume shooter. His on-ice shooting percentage (15.5%) and individual points percentage (84.6%) speak to strong finishing and playmaking but at rates not replicable long term. Some regression is in order when Bedard returns. Defensively, the Hawks continue to bleed chances against with No. 98 on the ice — finding a new gear offensively has come at a price on defense.
What’s Next?: Bedard’s sensational breakout has had far-reaching implications beyond the numbers. It’s shown he can be The Guy to drive Chicago’s offense and carry the team for stretches — plateaus never quite reached his first two seasons. Both Bedard’s and the franchise’s confidence have taken meaningful steps forward as a result. While some have no time for the ‘generational talent’ label, I find the interpretation and discussion fascinating. Has Bedard moved back on this track? Has Celebrini entered the chat? We should let them complete full seasons at superstar levels and age enough to legally rent a vehicle or enter a casino first. But here are the usual generational candidates versus our current phenoms.
Leo Carlsson, Age-21 Season
Drafted: 2nd overall, Anaheim Ducks, 2023
NHL season: 3rd
Elite Company: Flying under the radar as the #2 pick behind Bedard in 2023 and eased more gingerly into the NHL in Orange County, Carlsson has quietly erupted. As the team is coming of age and new coach Joel Quenneville is unlocking its offense, Carlsson is thriving. While he’s not at a top-three pace like Schaefer, Celebrini, or Bedard, the statuesque Swede is in an impressive tie for 14th in adjusted point pace. He’s still 20 until Boxing Day, but this is Carlsson’s age-21 season — the age at which he will spend the majority of the 2025-26 NHL calendar. The first 11 names on the leaderboard above are exclusively inducted or future Hall of Famers, six of whom are Inner Circle types.
Reasons for Caution: Incredibly, Carlsson should match his career-high totals this month. Impressive stuff but such feats are often partially propped up by favorable percentages. Carlsson has taken a major step as a sniper, bumping his shot attempts per game from 2.99 to 5.06 this season. He’s a terrific finisher, scoring on 20% of his shots. But that kind of conversion is tough to maintain — only five of 46 players that scored 30 goals managed that rate last season. He’s predictably cooled off a little lately. An unremarkable driver of play, Carlsson may also be asked to tighten up as the Ducks evolve toward contender status.
What’s Next?: Carlsson’s going to be an elite player for years to come. It’s less likely he reaches the heights of the more iconic names ahead of him on the age-21 leaderboard. Each of those players were quicker studies than Carlsson, becoming near-immediate forces somewhere between 18 and 20 years old. Dallas‘ Mikko Rantanen (era adjusted 87-point pace at Carlsson’s age) comes to mind as a comparable, highly-touted big man who took a year or so to find his footing before quickly climbing the NHL’s ranks around his 21st birthday.
Data from Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick, HockeyStats.com, NHL Edge
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